The Monday MLB schedule is lighter than most days, with just eight games on tap, but anyone looking to get into MLB betting and home run prop betting will have plenty of options to choose from. Every game offers numerous hitters who can take one deep, and looking at batter vs. pitcher splits is just one way to find your best home run bets today. The top matchup Monday is Yankees vs. Guardians, as both teams look to hold their division leads. Balls will be flying out of the yard at many stadiums Monday, and anyone who wants to wager on the best bet to hit a home run today needs to see who SportsLine MLB expert Angelo Magliocca is backing.
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Magliocca, also known as “Amags,” is a hugely profitable MLB capper who uses his deep knowledge of baseball to find value on player props, sides and totals. He is coming off another strong season at SportsLine. Over the 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 MLB seasons, Amags is up 133.4 units on straight bets and parlays while winning an additional 25.3 units on ladder plays.
Best Home Run picks for Monday
Yordan Alvarez (+250)
Look around for some boosts on your favorite sportsbook, because getting a price at +250 or better for Alvarez to hit a home run tonight is showing some strong value. Alvarez is facing off with Grayson Rodriguez, who has given up four home runs in his last three starts, with two allowed last time out against the Rockies. He’s been hit hard over half the time and has been abysmal for allowing hard contact to left-handed batters, sitting in the third percentile overall for hard-hit rate.
It’s three home runs and 16 hits allowed to left-handed batters in just 10 innings for Rodriguez, and with some of the better hitting weather on tonight’s slate, the matchup is ripe for the AL MVP hopeful. The Angels also feature a bullpen that since May 1 has the fifth-highest HR/9 in MLB and will likely try to match up a lefty reliever against Alvarez just because of the “platoon advantage.” That’s a matchup many left-handers struggle with, but not the Astros slugger. He has eight home runs in 77 plate appearances against lefties this season.
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Jackson Chourio (+290), William Contreras (+410)
Jeffrey Springs has allowed at least one home run in eight of his last nine starts, with seven long balls surrendered in his last four. This game takes place in Las Vegas, with some intense heat, and in a minor-league park where we’ve seen the total bump up to 10.5 and 11 runs. The projection is that there will be runs scored, yet Kyle Harrison is on the other side of this one and he’s been incredible at limiting hard contact and barrels.
I get the weather situation, but I think the projection is coming more from the Brewers offense than the A’s, and Springs is pitching to a putrid HR/FB rate above 15%. Chourio and Contreras have led the Brewers righties in ISO against left-handed pitchers for the past couple of years and Chourio looks especially locked in of late, hitting the ball hard against lefties with one home run in 29 at-bats thus far. As he continues to settle in, I love betting his hitter props tonight and will take the better than +400 price on Contreras, who had a home run in their last series in Colorado and already has two long balls against lefties in a much smaller sample size than last year.
Worth noting: Trent Grisham at better than +500 in some spots as the leadoff hitter for the away team here against Gavin Williams is showing some strong value. Williams has allowed eight home runs to lefties in just under 50 innings this year, but prices on Grisham have been falling fast this morning.
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