NBA playoffs 2026: Ranking every team after conference semifinal Game 1s

All four NBA conference semifinals are underway after a turbulent first round that featured three Game 7s, two massive upsets and some key injuries.

With eight teams left vying for the Larry O’Brien Trophy, it’s a perfect opportunity to take stock of the field as it currently stands and rank those contenders on their likelihood to come away with the hardware when the postseason is all said and done.

Here’s our take, with the case for and against each of the eight teams as the second round is now one game in across the board.

(Note: 2026 NBA title odds courtesy ESPN Analytics.)

First round: Defeated PHX, 4-0
Conf. semis: Lead LAL, 1-0
2026 NBA title odds: 48.8%

The case for:

How about championship experience, depth for days, a ferocious defense, the likely two-time MVP and home-court advantage throughout the rest of the playoffs? OKC is the best-positioned team since the Golden State Warriors in 2017-18 to chase a repeat title. The Thunder can play big, with Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein up front. They can play small, with a menacing fleet of guards wreaking havoc in both half-court defense and in transition when they force turnovers. And they have a coach in Mark Daigneault who isn’t afraid to experiment with lineups throughout a playoff series.

The case against:

That 7-foot-4 game-plan wrecker Victor Wembanyama and his teammates down Interstate 35. San Antonio won four of five meetings with OKC this season, showcasing a length and athleticism that can give the Thunder problems. But if OKC can survive a San Antonio matchup — the potential of a heavyweight West finals took a small hit when the Spurs dropped Game 1 on Monday against the Timberwolves — nothing outside of catastrophic injury luck should stand in the way of a Thunder repeat.

First round: Defeated POR, 4-1
Conf. semis: Trail MIN, 1-0
2026 NBA title odds: 13.5%

The case for:

Who says the young Spurs have to fall on their faces before earning success? Wembanyama did just that and bounced back after a game absence, returning with the same terrifying force he showed through the entire season. The Trail Blazers tried physicality on Wembanyama in the first round, but he shook it off and averaged four blocks despite missing most of Game 2 and all of Game 3 because of a concussion. And with Stephon Castle boasting 43.8% shooting from 3 as an emerging third scorer, why can’t the Spurs skip a few steps? Yes, short-handed Minnesota shocked many to steal Monday’s Game 1, but it will take more to move San Antonio from this spot.

The case against:

The champs are the champs until someone knocks them off, and if Thunder guard Jalen Williams is healthy, throw this season’s previous Spurs-Thunder showdowns out the window. But can San Antonio’s shooting hold up? Minnesota’s defense suffocated the Denver Nuggets to the tune of 30% from the 3-point line in the first round, and the Timberwolves held the Spurs to just 28% (10-for-36) from 3 on Monday, with Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox combining for an 0-for-12 night. Oklahoma City allowed just 34% in the first round against the Phoenix Suns. The Spurs don’t rely much on the 3-point shot, but it has become an equalizer that has helped their resurgence through the season.

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First round: Defeated ATL, 4-2
Conf. semis: Lead PHI, 1-0
2026 NBA title odds: 19.3%

The case for:

The Knicks played as cohesively as they have all season in the final three wins to eliminate the Atlanta Hawks. And though defending the way they did in Game 6 is unsustainable, the series opener against Philadelphia showed it could carry over.

Offensively, if OG Anunoby can keep up this torrid scoring — he has gone 23-for-30 from the field over his past three games — and Karl-Anthony Towns is truly unlocked, New York will be in the driver’s seat among the East’s final four teams.

The case against:

Matchups. Could Philadelphia, which adjusted well against Boston after a Game 1 rout, become the Knicks’ kryptonite? Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey could catch fire and shift New York’s defense. If nothing else, the Knicks were built to beat Boston in these playoffs. That major roadblock was removed, but Philadelphia is a bit of a wild card, especially the dynamic Maxey-VJ Edgecombe backcourt. New York won’t be able to hide Jalen Brunson on defense all series long or in a potential East finals showdown with Detroit.

First round: Defeated ORL, 4-3
Conf. semis: Lead CLE, 1-0
2026 NBA title odds: 17.2%

The case for:

Including the Pistons, six of the top eight teams in defensive rating are in the conference semifinals, and only Oklahoma City is better than Detroit. Cade Cunningham finding his All-NBA game in the Orlando series shows he can process quickly, adjust and embrace the moment. Ausar Thompson is also evolving into a generational defender during these playoffs. What if Orlando was the toughest physical matchup Detroit will face? And if this version of Tobias Harris — the veteran forward averaged 21.6 points in the first round, more than eight better than during the regular season — sticks around for May and June, Detroit could bully its way through the next six weeks.

The case against:

The Pistons got here, but it’s difficult to forget the first four games against Orlando. Shooting under 30% from 3, with sharpshooter Duncan Robinson being unable to create space for quality looks and also being targeted on defense, was not a pretty sight. Having Cunningham as the one proven scorer could catch up to them, especially if center Jalen Duren’s offense doesn’t bounce back after averaging just 10.6 points in the first round. Cunningham, meanwhile, is still recovering from a punctured lung. So much has to align for Detroit to get to the Finals. The slightest slip could spell doom.

First round: Defeated DEN, 4-2
Conf. semis: Lead SA, 1-0
2026 NBA title odds: 0.4%

The case for:

Minnesota’s remarkable victory over Denver in Game 6 proves that the Timberwolves are incredibly resilient. Rudy Gobert is coming off perhaps the best series of his Hall of Fame career, slowing down three-time MVP Nikola Jokic. If there’s anyone who can give Wembanyama a battle in the paint, it’s Gobert, a four-time Defensive Player of the Year. Anthony Edwards, meanwhile, played clutch minutes in Game 1 after a stunningly fast return from a hyperextended knee he sustained last round. The Wolves also have the experience of back-to-back conference finals appearances the past two years. Their second-round opponent, San Antonio, is surely feeling that disadvantage after dropping Game 1 at home.

The case against:

The Wolves, despite stealing Game 1, would be higher ranked if they had fewer injuries. Edwards returned in Game 1, but first-round standout Ayo Dosunmu remained sidelined by a calf strain, and Donte DiVincenzo is out for the postseason because of a torn right Achilles. Though Minnesota won Game 1 behind some incredible play down the stretch, keeping that up over an entire series is a tall order against Wembanyama and the deep, athletic Spurs guard rotation.

First round: Defeated BOS, 4-3
Conf. semis: Trail NYK, 1-0
2026 NBA title odds: 0.1%

The case for:

The 76ers are the ultimate variance team. When fully healthy and operational — not counting Monday’s Game 1 drubbing by New York — Philly has had an incredibly high ceiling. The pick-and-roll combination of Maxey and Embiid is a handful for any team to stop, Paul George looks as if he has returned to his All-Star form, Edgecombe continues to prove he’s not afraid of big moments, and Kelly Oubre Jr. and Quentin Grimes have combined to give Philadelphia 48 quality minutes per game on the wing. There aren’t many teams with that level of on-paper talent and versatility. The 76ers also have Nick Nurse, the only championship-winning coach besides OKC’s Daigneault remaining in the field.

The case against:

Where to start? The most obvious is the tenuous health of Philadelphia’s stars. Can Embiid and George make it through the next six weeks healthy? History would show that’s a dicey proposition. That’s especially true for Embiid, who is less than a month removed from an emergency appendectomy, the latest health issue to impact a postseason run for the former MVP.

And often during the team’s past few postseasons, the bottom has fallen out in big situations. Game 7 in Boston nearly became the latest example, when an 18-point, late third-quarter lead nearly evaporated.

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First round: Defeated TOR, 4-3
Conf. semis: Trail DET, 1-0
2026 NBA title odds: 0.4%

The case for:

Cleveland’s roster was built for playoff success. In James Harden and Donovan Mitchell, the Cavs have an explosive backcourt capable of huge games. In Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, the Cavs have two versatile big men who can handle a variety of defensive assignments and provide enough offense to complement the guards. And Sam Merrill, Max Strus and Dean Wade can space the court, with Wade slotting in as a stout defender against the opponent’s bigger wings.

The case against:

As the Cavs wheezed through a seven-game triumph against the short-handed Toronto Raptors — Brandon Ingram sat out the final two-plus games and Immanuel Quickley didn’t play at all — Harden and Mitchell struggled plenty as the series progressed. Now, Detroit presents a level of physicality that Cleveland has struggled with. The Cavs have a conference championship ceiling, but right now it’s hard to believe they can reach it. That remains the case after a rough performance in Game 1 in which Cleveland had a chance to steal the game after trailing for all of it, only to falter in the closing minutes after tying the score with five minutes left.

First round: Defeated HOU, 4-2
Conf. semis: Trail OKC, 1-0
2026 NBA title odds: 0.3%

The case for:

LeBron James has defied every expectation at this stage of his career, so why couldn’t he conquer this mountain? Or at least keep the Lakers upright long enough for Austin Reaves to recover fully and for Luka Doncic to inch closer to a return from his hamstring injury? They were the tougher team against the Houston Rockets and executed late in games to continue their seasonlong efficiency in the clutch. If the first-round 3-point shooting of Marcus Smart, Luke Kennard and Rui Hachimura carries over (all 40% or better), it gives the Lakers’ drivers plenty of space. It also would give any LeBron-led playoff team some hope.

The case against:

They’re playing the “Monstars” — and not the rebooted version. The Thunder are rested, and presumably, healthier with Jalen Williams on the mend. Asking James to repeat his first-round performance against a Thunder team that rarely beats itself seems a bit impossible. The Thunder have dominated the matchups against the Lakers, and even if a miracle happens, the Spurs are waiting. Common sense says L.A.’s run ends here.