His biggest achievement in the cease-fire framework is the expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to global shipping traffic, which will eventually reduce the prices of energy and other goods. That, of course, is merely a reversion to the prewar status quo. Iran closed the strait in retaliation, to damage the global economy and increase political pressure on the United States. The move worked, and Iran’s leaders now understand that they hold a powerful economic weapon.
On balance, Iran emerges the strategic winner of the four-month war. It did suffer substantial losses, including much of its navy, air force, military-industrial capacity and political leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, who was killed on the war’s first day. With the war ending, however, Iran’s leadership can begin rebuilding.
The United States, for its part, looks weaker in the eyes of the world. The American military has shown itself unable to quash a much smaller opponent even as it burned through many of its long-range precision missiles and interceptors. The outcome damages this country’s ability to deter other potential adversaries. To begin to repair the damage, the United States would be wise to mend alliances in Europe, the Middle East and Asia that have been frayed by the war’s military and economic effects. The Pentagon will also need to modernize and prepare for the wars of the future. Neither is likely to happen under President Trump.
Before the American and Israeli attack began on Feb. 28, Iran’s leadership had endured a miserable two and a half years. The government was far weaker than it had been before the Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel by Hamas, which Iran has long funded and advised. In response to that attack, Israel significantly diminished Hamas and Hezbollah, another Iranian proxy group. In Syria, a murderous, Iran-backed dictator fell while Iran’s leaders did little to save him. Israel and the United States exposed Iran’s air defenses and missile program as paper tigers when they bombed Iranian nuclear sites last summer, setting back its program. All the while, Iran’s currency continued to plummet, and its economy was in ruins. Starting late last year, Iranians took to the streets to protest, and the regime responded by killing thousands of them, if not tens of thousands.
All these problems remain, and Iran is still weaker than it was three years ago. But the war has given it leverage it did not have when 2026 began. Its regime has demonstrated that it can survive waves of attacks from its two biggest enemies. Its leaders have not had to abandon their nuclear ambitions. And they have learned that the rest of the world seems unwilling to use military force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran chooses to close the strait at some point in the coming months or years, what will Mr. Trump do in response?
