Now, a plurality say their finances have only worsened since Trump took office, including 18 percent of the president’s 2024 voters, according to the May survey conducted by Public First.
The findings underscore how Trump has struggled to find a winning midterm message on affordability, even as the economy remains healthy by many indicators. The president’s tendency to go off script, despite his allies’ urging, has further muddied GOP efforts. And the unpopular Iran war has Republicans barrelling toward November with voters’ financial fears remaining a stubborn, lingering political liability.
A majority of Americans say Trump has not done enough to protect them from the economic fallout from the war, which has caused gas, food and flight prices to spike. More than 60 percent — including majorities of both Trump voters and people who backed former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 — say the war has made things more expensive for them overall.
“A major challenge for [Joe] Biden was that, as prices rose and worries about inflation took hold, the response from the Biden administration was that inflation was ‘transitory,’” said Kevin Madden, a longtime GOP communications strategist.
“Trump faces a similar predicament. As prices rise due to tariff and trade policies and global conflict, the response that it’s a hoax or not true is just a very discordant message given that so many voters are feeling a budget pinch right now,” he added.
The Iran war is increasingly overshadowing the Trump administration’s domestic economic messaging, as officials often get peppered with questions about oil and gas prices and battleground Republicans grow anxious that the extended conflict could hurt their chances in key Senate and House races this November.
The survey shows that Republicans’ attempts to place the economic blame on Biden aren’t resonating: Just 28 percent of Americans say the former president holds full or most of the responsibility for the current U.S. economy, compared with nearly half who lay much of the blame at Trump’s feet.
“The sooner the war winds down, the better for Trump when it comes to prospects in the midterms because the price of gas is so intricate in the notion of affordability,” said one Florida-based Republican strategist granted anonymity to speak candidly.
White House spokesperson Kush Desai said the president “has been clear about short-term disruptions” and is focused on implementing his economic agenda.
“As traffic in the Strait of Hormuz normalizes again, Americans will again see gas prices plummet, real wages grow, inflation cool, and trillions in investments continue pouring in,” Desai said in a statement.
Trump voters are far more likely than Harris voters to say that the president has taken sufficient action to curb costs from the Iran conflict, but even his own supporters are split: 43 percent say he has done enough, while 43 percent say he has not.
It’s a stark sign that mirrors broader divides within the GOP over the war, as some conservatives, such as media personality Tucker Carlson and former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, have been vocal in their opposition to the conflict.
