Understanding the current state of the California governor’s race is particularly challenging because the nonpartisan primary features a large field of candidates with similar levels of support. And with a significant percentage of voters still undecided, there is ample opportunity for candidates to pick up backers.
Among the most frequent questions over the last few months has been whether the state, which has a top-two open primary system, could have two Republicans advance to the general election in November. For months, that speculation has been fueled by polls that have shown the two major Republican candidates, Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton, routinely taking the top spots over the various Democratic hopefuls, albeit often by single-digit margins.
But with the exit of one of the leading Democratic contenders — Eric Swalwell, who resigned from the House of Representatives and suspended his campaign for governor after numerous allegations of sexual misconduct and assault — a Democrat has been in the top two spots in eight of the last 10 publicly released polls.
The reshaping of the large Democratic field after Mr. Swalwell’s exit has resulted in significant gains for Xavier Becerra, a former secretary of health and human services, who went from routinely polling at 5 percent or below to clearing 20 percent in multiple recent polls. Tom Steyer, a billionaire philanthropist, has also shown consistent, though smaller, improvement.
Mr. Hilton, a former Fox News commentator who was endorsed by President Trump in April, has appeared in the top two of nearly every poll conducted in 2026, but he is now frequently joined at the top by Mr. Becerra or Mr. Steyer, rather than Mr. Bianco, a Riverside County sheriff.
The top candidates are facing off in three separate debates this week, which may bring some clarity to a race that still feels wide open.
Polling in primary elections comes with certain limitations, even in less complicated races. Much of the polling in primaries comes from internal campaign polls or other sponsored surveys, which are often released selectively. Campaigns tend to publish numbers that flatter them or support fund-raising efforts, making it hard to get an unbiased read on where the race stands. Of the 30 public polls in the California race that have been released since the start of the year, only half have been independent.
Turnout adds another layer of uncertainty. Primary turnout is typically far lower than it is in general elections, so pollsters must not only gauge what voters prefer, but also predict which slice of the electorate will actually cast a ballot.
And then there is perhaps the most important factor in this race, which is the percentage of undecided voters. Most of the polls fielded since Mr. Swalwell dropped out have shown that more than 15 percent of voters have yet to make up their minds. A YouGov and CBS News survey from late April put that figure at over a quarter of likely voters — 10 points higher than that of the leading candidate.
In a race where the top four contenders are typically separated in the polls by only single digits, shares of undecided voters this large could affect the results in a major way.
