On June 11, Kalshi released a buzzy ad featuring noted New York Knicks fan Timothée Chalamet. It was a zeitgeist-capturing moment for prediction markets, akin to the 2022 Super Bowl, when seemingly every commercial featured a celebrity shilling crypto.
Yet when I brought Chalamet’s spot up with attendees at Manifest, a recent festival for prediction markets, I was mostly met with blank stares. These conference goers—a mix of academics, startup founders, job seekers, and players in the markets—hadn’t even heard about it. They were too busy thinking about the bigger picture and the risks facing markets.
Their confusion was the perfect encapsulation of a battle that I observed again and again that weekend: The way forecasting philosophers see the markets (tools for the greater good) is very different from how the vast majority of the world sees them (a way to bet on sports).
“We were all waiting for so long to be in the world we’re in now,” Dan Schwarz, the cofounder and chief executive officer of FutureSearch, an artificial intelligence research and prediction startup, tells me. But the platforms have run into problems, from insider trading to sports contracts that, Schwarz worries, are fueling addiction. To outweigh these harms, “prediction markets would have to deliver a lot more value than they are now.”
The prognosticators, it turns out, are concerned that the very thing that’s made prediction markets a global phenomenon could be their undoing.
This year’s iteration of Manifest took place at Lighthaven, an idyllic compound in Berkeley, California. The campus, which takes up about half a city block, also functions as the epicenter of the rationalist movement, which, among other things, prioritizes the safe development of AI and effective altruism.
The vibe skewed heavily male but was still eclectic. Clusters of twenty- and thirty-somethings huddled over laptops in the Tudor-style main house, and someone told me I looked like a guy who would have a stick of gum. Talks about markets jostled for attention alongside sessions about the odds that AI will kill us all and lessons on how to optimize your sex life. There was a furry meetup and watch parties for the first US World Cup match and game 5 of the NBA Finals. (I couldn’t find anyone who had put money on either event, though a few attendees told me they knew of folks who had made bank.) There were markets on play-money platform Manifold about the festival itself, like whether someone would break a bone (still unresolved) and whether Caroline Ellison would show up (yes).
Still, the broader background conditions were wildly different from previous years. Though Kalshi and Polymarket had sponsored the event in past years, they were AWOL this year. Both companies declined to comment on the change. Last year, Kalshi held a session on sports markets, which it had launched just six months earlier. This year, the companies are facilitating billions of dollars in sports trades during an especially friendly political era at the national level.
Sports were also conspicuously absent during a session on strategies for mastering markets around world events and politics. I caught up with David Bensoussan, the session’s organizer, who has made $1.6 million in profits on the platform, under the boughs of one of Lighthaven’s trees.
“The truth-seeking mechanism that prediction markets can have in terms of predicting things and making the population more informed—what on Earth does that have to do with sports?” he asks, wrapped in a blanket to ward off the chill of Bay Area shade.
