Our football betting expert Jones Knows offers his insight across the weekend action and is tipping Wolves to send Tottenham closer to a remarkable relegation.
Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest, Friday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Murillo is missing for Nottingham Forest for this one and looking at the last nine games he’s missed in the Premier League, Forest’s record is just one win from those nine. That includes draws with Leicester, Burnley and Wolves.
Although Sunderland are fancied here for the win, the form of Morgan Gibbs-White is helping Nottingham Forest in their survival bid. His shots data across the last 16 games is at a whopping 2.9 per 90, showcasing his influence in the attacking third.
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Only Burnley have conceded more shots from outside the box than Sunderland, who do also ship 1.4 shots on target from outside the box per 90. Gibbs-White has posted four shots on target from outside the box in his last nine games. All this points to his price of 15/8 with Sky Bet for another on target shot from range standing a great chance of landing.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
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Speaking ahead of his side’s Premier League clash with Nottingham Forest, Regis Le Bris admits he’d like to remain with Sunderland for a long period of time.
Fulham vs Aston Villa, Saturday 12.30pm
There are spots in the Premier League calendar where trends can point you firmly in one direction. Fulham are generally well-drilled, tactically flexible under Marco Silva and capable of producing big moments at home. But there is a glaring late-season pattern emerging that’s impossible to ignore.
Fulham’s form across April and May has been nothing short of alarming. Just four wins from their last 20 Premier League matches at this stage of the season tells its own story. Whether it’s physical drop-off, mental fatigue or simply the campaign fizzling out, the trend is consistent and, from a betting perspective, highly exploitable.
Aston Villa, still with lots to play for, look overpriced at 13/8 with Sky Bet for the away win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Aston Villa to win (13/8 with Sky Bet)
Liverpool vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
All the focus for this game will naturally drift towards goals, scorers and the usual headline acts but digging into the foul markets throws up a price that looks badly out of line. Virgil van Dijk to commit a foul at 4/5 with Sky Bet just doesn’t sit right when you line it up with the data.
He’s chalked up 12 fouls across his last nine Premier League starts – not explosive numbers on the surface, but more than enough to suggest this price should be shorter not the outsider of the market.
Van Dijk isn’t quite operating with the same calm authority we’ve come to expect. There’s a touch more urgency in his defending right now. The decision-making isn’t as clean, the timing not quite as precise.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
West Ham vs Everton, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
There’s a nice narrative hook to this one – the David Moyes derby – but the betting angle sits firmly in the player card markets. This has all the makings of a tense, scrappy affair. Moyes teams don’t tend to do exhibitions, they do structure, discipline and plenty of duels. That’s exactly the kind of environment where cards come into play.
Jake O’Brien to be carded at 5/2 with Sky Bet looks big when you drill into what he’s likely to be dealing with for 90 minutes.
Crysencio Summerville has been one of the most effective foul-drawers in the Premier League this season. Fourteen yellow cards won from opponents tells you everything – he’s direct, he’s aggressive with his running and, crucially, he forces defenders into decisions they don’t want to make.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Wolves vs Tottenham, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
There are shocks. These happen on a weekly basis in football betting.
But then there are seismic, industry-rattling, jaw-on-the-floor moments that force you to recalibrate what you thought was possible. We’re staring one right in the face.
With just five games to go, Tottenham, current European trophy holders, are now odds-on for relegation. The unthinkable is happening.
This is the fixture though that could just change it all. Wolves are what Tottenham could be soon: relegated. An easy three points then for the Londoners? Hardly. Not with this team who have shown an inability to deal with this pressurised situation.
Spurs at 8/11 with Sky Bet for the away win is the most easily swerved price of the season. Back Wolves, who have beaten Liverpool and Aston Villa recently at home and drew with Arsenal, in the double chance market at 11/10 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Wolves double chance (11/10 with Sky Bet)
Manchester City vs Southampton, FA Cup semi-final, Saturday 5.15pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
This could be a great watch and end up being closer than what the odds imply.
Manchester City are 1/20 with Sky Bet to make the final. That is a price dripping with danger based on what this Southampton side are capable of.
An unbeaten run of 20 matches for the south coast side, which includes beating Fulham, Arsenal and Coventry, means Pep Guardiola’s team will need to play somewhere near their best to win. The shock pays 15/2 with Sky Bet. It’s worth a nibble.
Saints will play predominantly in transition and that makes the Man City cards line attractive.
The opposition have been shown two or more cards in 10 of Southampton’s last 11 games to an average of 2.4 cards per game. City are 6/4 with Sky Bet to be shown over 1.5 cards (90 minutes only). That is a big price considering Southampton possess one the best card drawers around in Leo Scienza, who has been responsible for drawing 14 cards off the opposition this season in the Championship.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 (Southampton to win on penalties) | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Southampton to qualify (15/2 with Sky Bet)
Arsenal vs Newcastle, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
If Arsenal are going to edge out Manchester City in the title race, it won’t be because they suddenly outgun everyone in sight. It’ll be built on their defensive process which remains about as good as it gets in European football.
Mikel Arteta’s team have got to this level because of their structure, spacing and collective understanding without the ball. It’s elite. They limit transitions, protect central areas and force opponents into low-quality chances. It’s not always spectacular, but it’s incredibly effective.
Arsenal have shown a tendency to prioritise control over risk when the stakes are high. That naturally brings the tempo down and reduces the volume of chances at both ends. It’s no coincidence that their recent numbers are pointing firmly in that direction. Across their last 12 matches, the average total goals sits at just 2.05.
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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from Manchester City’s match against Arsenal in the Premier League.
Arsenal will want control, Newcastle will be happy to frustrate and neither side is likely to throw caution to the wind.
Under 2.5 goals at 5/4 with Sky Bet stands out as the value angle.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Chelsea vs Leeds, FA Cup semi-final, Sunday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
Opposing goals in matches at Wembley remains a sustainable long-term betting strategy. It might be the mecca of English football – to play there is every footballer’s dream – but I’m convinced the place saps the momentum out of a game.
Maybe the jeopardy of what is at stake plays a part, which in turn leads to low-scoring matches, but I think games there rarely spark into life. The numbers remain damning and provide hard evidence that Wembley is a place to back low scores.
And, the under goals theory in matches at Wembley is certainly at play in this game.
Across the last 51 domestic and European matches played at Wembley, the average goals per game is at 1.9 and 92 per cent of those games have landed for under 3.5 goal backers which is a 4/11 shot here and is a great starting point for those planning on building something via the BuildABet function.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Manchester United vs Brentford, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
There’s usually a sweet spot in the fouls market where role, match-up and price collide and this looks like one of them.
Michael Kayode to commit two or more fouls at 9/4 with Sky Bet makes plenty of appeal when you break down what he’s walking into here.
His direct opponent is Matheus Cunha and he’s exactly the type of forward who drags defenders into trouble. Cunha is averaging two fouls drawn per game this season, built on sharp movement, close control and a willingness to go down under contact.
Kayode made two fouls in the reverse fixture so at 9/4, you’re effectively betting on a repeat of a scenario we’ve already seen.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Jones Knows best bet:
1pt treble on Aston Villa to win, Wolves double chance & Southampton to qualify for FA Cup final (36/1 with Sky Bet)
