Our football betting expert Jones Knows offers his insight across the weekend action and tips up a 78/1 best bet treble.
Brentford vs Fulham, Saturday 12.30pm
Head-to-head data is usually the first thing to chuck in the bin when analysing football from a betting perspective, but derby matches are the exception to that rule.
This fixture is chaotic by nature. Across their recent seven Premier League meetings, it has averaged 3.6 goals per game.
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Brentford remain one of the most efficient attacking sides in the division when transitions open up, while Fulham’s approach under Marco Silva leans heavily into wide overloads and aggressive delivery. So, when these two styles collide, structure tends to give way to big moments being created in the final third. It makes the over 3.5 goals line with Sky Bet an interesting bet at 7/4.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Leeds vs Wolves, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
Leeds are being priced like a team ready to overwhelm inferior opposition at 4/7 with Sky Bet, yet that feels a touch short when you dig into what Wolves have been serving up lately. Yes, the table looks bleak for them and the direction of travel points towards the Sky Bet Championship, but performances haven’t quite matched the narrative.
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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from Manchester United’s match against Leeds in the Premier League
Take that defeat to West Ham last time out. A 4-0 loss screams collapse, yet it was anything but. Wolves were competitive for long periods, arguably the better side for much of the match, and found themselves on the wrong end of one of those scorelines that simply doesn’t reflect the balance of play.
Leeds will bring the usual intensity, directness and physicality. It’s their identity. But Wolves aren’t a soft touch in that department. In fact, in recent weeks they’ve shown enough resilience and structure to suggest they won’t be bullied in the way the odds imply. The 11/8 with Sky Bet on Wolves double chance has plenty going for it.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Newcastle vs Bournemouth, Saturday 3pm
Bournemouth are unbeaten in 13 across all competitions if you only look at 90-minute results. But this isn’t a squeaky clean team to trust based on their horrible underlying numbers in defence.
Across their last seven matches they have allowed chances worth 14.35 expected goals. They’ve conceded only five.
That’s an overperformance of around 9.65 goals. You’re essentially looking at a team giving up chances at a rate of over two expected goals against per 90 and they have played the likes of Burnley, West Ham and Sunderland in that run.
Yes, there is a lot of noise around Eddie Howe right now at Newcastle, their form isn’t at their usual levels but this is a team who have averaged 2.1 expected goals per 90 at home across the last two seasons.
The relentless fixture list has helped kill their season but I’m still a big believer in Howe being the most important part of this project at Newcastle so I’m happy to trust them at home when the price is right. It is here at 10/11 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Tottenham vs Brighton, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
Tottenham are more than likely to be relegated now according to the market. They have gone odds-on at 17/20 with Sky Bet to face the drop. It’s very difficult to see where points are going to come from.
This is a team on their longest winless league streak in 91 years with no victories in 14 games and one that have landed the odds just four times in their last 30 Premier League home games. They have had the same amount of managers as home wins in that time.
Brighton are the most in-form team in the Premier League right now, winning five of their last six and winning to nil in their last three away games. Don’t overcomplicate it, just back the away win at 6/4 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-3
Chelsea vs Manchester United, Saturday 8pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
Leny Yoro and Ayden Heaven – who have a combined age of 39 – are Manchester United’s only senior centre-backs available for this clash and both will be eager to impress.
However, Joao Pedro is exactly the kind of striker who can expose that eagerness. His movement is sharp, but more importantly, he’s clever. He initiates contact, buys fouls and puts defenders in awkward body positions. Since the start of last season, he’s drawn 19 yellow cards from opponents – only six players in the league have won more.
If Yoro or Heaven dive in half a second too early or gets caught the wrong side, Joao Pedro will make sure the referee has a decision to make. That could lead to cards being shown to the two United defenders. Yoro is 5/1 and Heaven is 3/1 with Sky Bet to pick up a card. Combining them both through the BuildABet function offers up a 13/1 longshot to back.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Aston Villa vs Sunderland, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
Regular readers will know how exploiting the value potential in match-ups in the fouls market can be a bit of a goldmine for beating the market. And the rise of the old school physical centre forward being back in fashion has certainly added a different dynamic to the way we analyse foul markets now as centre backs are being fouled more due to the aggressive nature of the big-man striker.
Brian Bobbey fits that bill.
He played like a man possessed against Spurs last weekend racking up eight foul involvements. And the match-up with Ezri Konsa here looks ripe for a fouls bet. Konsa is too smart to fight attackers – he is one of the best around at selling fouls to win battles. He’s averaging 1.5 fouls won per home game this season and I think he’s going to play Brobbey like a fiddle and win fouls off him. Konsa is 4/5 with Sky Bet to win two or more fouls.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Everton vs Liverpool, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
Liverpool not to score in first halves away from home remains a sustainable edge to exploit. The Reds have scored just three first-half goals in their last 17 away days as Arne Slot’s controlled and safety-first style remains a tedious watch at times. If you have been backing this Liverpool first half blank in their away games you’d have landed the money on 14 of the last 17 occasions.
When you throw in Everton’s defensive soundness into the mix, the case grows even stronger. The Toffees have kept a first half clean sheet in 10 of their 16 home games and haven’t conceded a first half home goal in their last four games. It’s 5/6 with Sky Bet to happen again.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Nottingham Forest vs Burnley, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
If you offered any of the teams scrapping at the bottom a free hit on who to play next, Burnley at home would be right at the top of the wishlist. One win in their last 23 Premier League matches tells you everything you need to know about where this team is right now. Competitive in spells, yes. But ultimately lacking the cutting edge and resilience needed to turn performances into points.
This is exactly the type of fixture Forest have to cash in on. At home, with the crowd behind them, it’s set up for them to take control. But don’t expect a goal fest.
Forest aren’t a team that tend to run away from opponents. Even in favourable match-ups, their wins are often built on structure, discipline and moments rather than relentless attacking waves. They have scored just two goals in their last seven home games. One goal just might be enough here with a Forest win and under 3.5 goals at 6/5 with Sky Bet standing out.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Manchester City vs Arsenal, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
A monster match. And one where backing the bet no one wants to back is the shrewd move. I’m all over the draw here at 13/5 with Sky Bet.
Arsenal’s problems are clear – they have scored just three goals in last five games. Man City scored three goals in 17 minutes at Chelsea last weekend.
The Gunners’ attacking process has completely gone to pot, their frontline are in such stale form.
One of the biggest factors in all of this is the absence of Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka. The difference in output when Odegaard and Saka both play to when at least one of them is missing is stark. Since the start of last season, Arsenal’s goals per game drops from 2.1 to 1.3 without both Saka and Odegaard starting and their expected goals per game goes the same way too, nosediving from 1.9 to 1.3.
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Jamie O’Hara gets into a debate with an Arsenal fan over full-time boos at the Emirates after Bournemouth defeat
Mikel Arteta would snap your hand off for a draw right now.
Arsenal have to play to their strengths and that is their world-class defensive unit without the ball. Do what you’re good at. Arsenal should be trying to shut this game down, make it hard for City to score and win set-pieces.
They will come for the draw and at the prices, I’m happy to back them to get it.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Back the draw (13/5 with Sky Bet)
Sunday 19th April 4:00pm
Kick off 4:30pm
Crystal Palace vs West Ham, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Sometimes bets are less about the player you’re backing and more about the problem standing in front of him.
That’s very much the case here with Chris Richards. If he starts for Crystal Palace, there’s a strong chance he’ll find himself matched up against Crysencio Summerville – and that’s not a duel defenders tend to enjoy for 90 minutes.
The West Ham winger has been a magnet for fouls all season, drawing more yellow cards from opponents than anyone else in the Premier League (14). That tells you exactly what kind of evening Richards could be in for.
He’s been carded in two of his last three Premier League appearances, which hints at a player already walking that fine line between aggressive and mistimed. Add in the pressure of dealing with one of the league’s trickiest wide players, and you’ve got the perfect setup for another card which is a 9/2 chance with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Jones Knows best bet:
1pt treble on Ayden Heaven to be carded, Man City to draw with Arsenal & Chris Richards to be carded (78/1 with Sky Bet)
