Good evening from Los Angeles. Tomorrow, California is holding a series of competitive and expensive open primary elections, with voters choosing which candidates will go on to compete in the fall.
The highest-profile race is for governor — the official presiding over an economy that, if California were its own country, would rank as the fourth largest in the world, ahead of Japan.
But the state faces enormous challenges. There are constant threats of wildfires, mudslides and other natural disasters, along with a seemingly intractable shortage of affordable housing. In many ways, this election is a referendum on just how angry voters in a deep-blue state are with the status quo.
I spoke with my colleague Shane Goldmacher, who started his career reporting in Sacramento, for his view of the Golden State’s primaries and what to expect and look for this week. Our conversation has been edited and condensed.
Hi Shane, thanks for joining me to talk California politics. Voters here have actually been mailing in their primary ballots for weeks. It’s what some folks call a jungle primary — meaning that, regardless of party, the top two vote-getters will make the November ballot. What are you watching for as results come in tomorrow night?
Well, let’s set some expectations. Given how slowly California counts its votes, and how closely clustered the top three candidates are in the polls, I am not sure we will have much clarity on election night. That said, the final stages of the contest have really boiled down to an intense fight between two Democrats: Xavier Becerra, the former health secretary in the Biden administration, and Tom Steyer, the billionaire financier.
Steyer has spent record sums of money — more than $200 million — as he tries to run as a progressive outsider who will bring change to Sacramento. The whole animating idea — and tension of his candidacy — is that of a populist billionaire who wants to tax billionaires and corporations.
On the other side is Becerra, who served in Congress, in the State Legislature, as the state attorney general and in the Biden cabinet. It’s about as long of a political résumé as you can have. And Becerra’s argument basically boils down to: Experience counts. And his campaign has tried in the final stage to Make Governmental Service Sexy Again. His team cut one video with the hashtag, I kid you not, #HotCompetenceSummer.
“Competence is cool,” Becerra says in it. “Having experience is hot.”
Did that go viral?
It went exactly as viral as you might expect.
Becerra would be the first Latino governor of California in modern history, but it’s not clear how much that fact is driving his candidacy. What do you make of the dynamics of the race?
In some polls, Becerra has consolidated support among Latino voters. But neither of the leading Democrats are people who have truly energized or excited the party base. Bigger names took a pass on the race. First, Kamala Harris. Then Alex Padilla. Eric Swalwell entered the race only to exit it this spring after a swirl of sexual misconduct allegations.
Until then, Becerra had been in the single digits. Timing is so important in politics, and he may have gotten his look from voters at just the right moment.
What about the Republicans in the race? At one point Democrats were worried that two Republicans could make the November ballot and shut out their party entirely. How likely do you think it is that the roles have reversed and that two Democrats could shut out the G.O.P. entirely?
Yes, for a long time Democrats were screaming about the possibility of getting locked out. But no longer. Ever since President Trump endorsed Steve Hilton, the former Fox News personality, Hilton has opened a lead in the polls over the other Republican candidate, Chad Bianco. Now Hilton is actually the one warning about Republicans getting locked out if both Becerra and Steyer finish ahead of him. He pressed Bianco to drop out over the weekend. But Bianco more or less said no way.
I’ve been struck by how the governor’s race changed so quickly — it’s as if no one was paying attention until after Swalwell dropped out. What has most surprised you in the last month?
A lot! First, Trump’s decision to endorse Hilton seemed like it squashed whatever chance Republicans had to lock out a Democrat. The emergence of Becerra, who had been running for so long, with little to show for it, was a surprise, too. At one stretch in late April, he was the top Democratic online fund-raiser in the country on ActBlue — outpacing the likes of James Talarico in Texas and Senator Jon Ossoff in Georgia.
I think the (still unlikely) scenario where two Democrats fight it out until November would be the ultimate twist.
Apart from the governor’s race, what contests do you think are most interesting right now? We’ve got hard-fought congressional primaries up and down the state — and a contentious mayor’s race in Los Angeles, where a Trump-backed reality television star has made some attention-getting splashes.
The second-biggest race is definitely for mayor of Los Angeles, where Karen Bass is still fighting off the fallout from her initial absence during the horrific Palisades fires. Spencer Pratt, a reality TV star who lost his home in that fire, has gained traction with viral clips ripping into her handling of the city far beyond the fire. She also faces a challenge from the left, from Nithya Raman, a City Council member.
But I am a Congress junkie and find the House primaries fascinating — and a real measure of the trends and temperature in both parties.
Political junkies here like to say that California’s reality today is America’s future tomorrow. What do you think the primaries will tell us about the trends we are likely to see across the country this year?
In San Francisco, there is a fight about what kind of progressive to pick in Nancy Pelosi’s seat, in a race filled with both policy and personality clashes. In the Central Valley, Democrats will choose who to run against Representative David Valadao, a Republican who has survived in a tough district.
But the biggest thing I am watching is the younger generation of Democrats challenging the aging old guard. Three older incumbents (Brad Sherman, 71, Mike Thompson, 75, and Doris Matsui, 81) have serious Democratic rivals running and promising a fresh face for the future.
Well, we will all grow older waiting for the results. California is notoriously slow at counting ballots, which means we are unlikely to know many of the winners on Tuesday night — and the results of the closest races could be up in the air through the end of the week.
In other words, readers, settle in for a long ride.
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