President Trump’s disapproval rating has hit its highest level of his second term, Democrats are gaining ground on the economy and there are signs across the country that Democrats are more motivated than Republicans are to vote.
As Republicans’ problems metastasize, it seems safe to bet that they will fall back on one tried-and-tested strategy for the midterms:
Going negative.
With the party struggling for any kind of consistent affirmative message — and relying on a president known for going off-script — Republicans appear more likely to lean on the type of scorched-earth campaign that Trump has long favored. Come the fall, don’t be surprised to see a flood of advertising painting Democrats as out-of-touch elites who want open borders, are soft on crime and are wrong on whatever the hot-button cultural issue of the moment becomes.
Helping the Republican cause: The party’s main political committees and allied groups have built a staggering advantage of roughly $600 million over the Democratic ones, as my colleague Theodore Schleifer reported this week.
“Particularly with this financial advantage that they do have, they have an opportunity to reshape what voters in battleground districts see and hear that maybe isn’t reflected in just looking at the generic-ballot polling or looking at the national environment,” Patrick Ruffini, a Republican pollster, told me. “We’re going to see a negative campaign.”
He expects to see “tens of millions of dollars spent on the personal negatives of some of these candidates,” especially in key Senate races in places like Maine and potentially Michigan.
Negative campaigning is as old as American politics itself (as fans of the musical “Hamilton” will recall!). It is certainly not limited to one side of the aisle — Democrats have already launched their share of blistering primary campaign ads this year, and the onslaught is sure to continue heading into general election season.
Tough advertising can be wildly misleading — but it can also be rooted in fair and genuine concerns that voters have about specific candidates, and it can be effective.
Republicans, for their part, are hoping to turn the midterm elections into choices between individual candidates, rather than simply a referendum on Trump and his party, and are betting they have the money to do it.
It is possible, of course, for individual politicians to outrun national headwinds — especially if they can disqualify the other side.
Take 2020, when Trump lost the presidential election, but Republicans managed to wipe out a number of House Democrats and plenty of candidates, portraying them as radical socialists who abhorred law enforcement.
But broadly, Republicans clearly have a challenging task — especially if the mood of the country is as sour in the fall as it is today.
“They’re going to have so much work to do to, A) persuade persuadable voters, B), motivate an extremely demotivated base,” said Tim Persico, a former executive director of the Democratic House campaign arm. “They are going to be spending a ton of money trying to change people’s minds, which is an extremely expensive proposition.”
“If they want to have a chance,” he added, “they’re going to have to have way more money.”
Democratic candidates in key midterm races are doing much better financially than their Republican counterparts — and at least for now, their money goes further when it comes to reserving broadcast airtime. Democratic outside spenders are making their own aggressive airtime reservations.
And sometimes, mountains of money and even the strongest, most battle-tested candidates are no match for the national mood, especially in this hyper-polarized era. Just ask former Representative Carlos Curbelo, a Florida Republican, or former Senator Bob Casey, a Pennsylvania Democrat.
“Gravity comes for everyone at a certain point,” Persico said.
number of the day
23 percent
That’s the share of Americans who approve of President Trump’s handling of the cost of living, according to a new poll from The Associated Press and NORC. Ruth Igielnik, The Times’s polling editor, explains.
As gas prices linger above four dollars nationally and voters continue to express concern about everything from grocery prices to utility costs, three-quarters of Americans disapprove of Trump’s approach to cost of living concerns.
When it comes to worries about rising costs, Trump is facing some of his toughest numbers with his base. Nearly half of Republicans disapproved of how the president has approached costs.
That stands in marked contrast to the much higher percentage of Republicans who approve of Trump’s handling of other key issues like immigration and Iran.
This is the first time that the poll has asked about approval of Trump on cost of living, but it has asked about his approval on the economy more than a dozen times since he took office for a second time. Just 30 percent of Americans approve of his handling of the economy, the lowest in either of Trump’s terms.
Quote of the Day
“The pope speaks for his people. He is beyond politics.”
That’s Stuart Sepulvida, a three-time Trump voter and Catholic who told my colleague Jennifer Medina he had never felt more betrayed by an American president than when Trump began his feud with Pope Leo XIV.
If the president’s quarrel with the pope sours more Latinos on the Republican Party, Jennifer writes, it could affect midterm races across the country, including in South Florida and South Texas, where Republicans have notched important victories in predominantly Hispanic districts in recent years.
Take Our Quiz
This question comes from a recent article in The Times. Click an answer to see if you’re right. (The link will be free.)
In which red state is an independent Senate candidate clashing with local Democrats over who is best suited to compete in politically unfriendly terrain?
ONE LAST THING
How will Trump’s dinner with a room of journalists go?
Trump, who has never attended the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner while serving as president, is set to break his boycott on Saturday night. (The New York Times will have two reporters covering the event but has for years avoided buying seats, my colleague Sarah Bahr explains.)
The key question, my colleague Michael Grynbaum writes, is “what sort of message will this president, who has sued, threatened and demonized the independent news media, deliver when handed a microphone in front of hundreds of the nation’s most prominent journalists?”
Ruth Igielnik and Taylor Robinson contributed reporting.
