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Tristan H. Cockcroft
Multiple Authors
Commence the annual April dance.
We spend a substantial portion of March assembling what we think, at the time, was a perfectly-crafted roster. Then, three weeks into the season, slow starts by some of our most integral pieces have us in doubt. Panic — and the responsive advice not to do so — is all the rage in this opening month.
Veteran fantasy baseball managers are exhausted by it — who truly likes hearing “be patient” annually? — while more casual players appreciate the reassurance. While it might seem impossible to find a happy medium between the two, the truth is that possessing an understanding of this critical and most universally-attentive time of year is all you need. A refresher can even be helpful for veteran managers.
The perception of small samples
The plain truth is that there’s absolutely no difference whatsoever between performance in the season’s first 20 days and any other 20-day span throughout the year. It’s all a matter of perception.
The only reason slumps ring louder now than at any other time is that players’ cumulative stat lines reflect only those 20 days, while a slump in August reflects both those 20 days and the four months that came before it, the latter often hiding the extremes to which that player struggled.
Consider, among this year’s slumping stars:
Cal Raleigh: hit .123/.206/.193 in 15 games
Julio Rodriguez: hit .210/.250/.321 in 19 games
Pete Crow-Armstrong: hit .145/.217/.177 with one steal in 18 games
Jazz Chisholm Jr.: hit .119/.250/.284 in 19 games
If you’ve already figured out that these stat lines aren’t the respective players’ year-to-date 2026 stats, well done! All of them represent equal-length slumps to this year that each player had in either of the prior two seasons.
Raleigh’s occurred over a 20-day span to conclude August 2024, a season in which he hit 34 homers with 100 RBI. Rodriguez’s slump happened over the final 10 days of June and first 10 of July of last season, after which point he posted a .954 OPS in what was a 30/30 campaign. Crow-Armstrong’s represented his start to last August, in what was his own 30/30 breakthrough season. And Chisholm’s — strangely enough — was a stretch also during April of last year, a season in which he, too, went 30/30.
This is the primary reason for “be patient” advice, which is generally the rule of thumb with player slumps. If we’re to make rash decisions with Raleigh, or Crow-Armstrong, we should be as apt to do that following an equal-length funk in July as we are today. And if we do it at either time, it gosh darned had better be because of some actionable change to their skill set or outlook.
How do we separate those actionable slumps from the noise? Examine anything that might’ve changed for the player potentially to his detriment.
Can declining velocity signal bad things ahead?
Perhaps the most common reason for fantasy managers to push the panic button is the pitcher who has lost fastball velocity. It’s understandable, considering none of us wants to be stuck with the next Carlos Estevez (he of the 4.7-mph dip in his 2026 debut, days before he wound up on the injured list).
Garrett Crochet might be such a panic-button candidate, after he surrendered a career-worst 11 runs on Monday in which his average fastball velocity dipped to 94.5 mph, nearly 2 mph behind his 2025 number. While that outing put the preseason Cy Young candidate in “must track” territory for his next couple of starts, it’s also important to recognize that many pitchers — even the league’s elite — have endured velocity lulls sometime between late spring training and the early weeks of May. You’ve heard of this before, as it’s the dreaded “dead arm” period.
Across the past five seasons (and taking only top-150 overall selections who made at least three starts over the first 20 days), 76 pitchers endured a decline in velocity of at least half a mile per hour compared to the prior year. Of that group, 72% recaptured at least some of that lost velocity over the next 5 ½ months, and 46% finished within at worst half a mile per hour of their prior year number. From a fantasy angle, 21 of the 76 (28%) wound up scoring 400-plus fantasy points.
Incidentally, this isn’t the first time Crochet’s velocity has been noticeably down. He averaged beneath 95 mph in a pair of early-2025 starts as well (94.0, May 4; 94.7, April 8), yet finished the year the No. 2 scoring pitcher (568 fantasy points).
Early 2026 slumps that are bothersome
Crow-Armstrong: His is of concern only because the things that were bothersome about him on draft day persist. He’s one of the most free-swinging hitters, posting a greater-than-40% chase rate (50% this year, actually) for the third consecutive year, which is why expecting him to maintain the kind of first-half pace he had when he hit 25 homers and stole 27 bases in 2025 was always unrealistic. That said, even Crow-Armstrong’s numbers are destined to significantly improve in the coming weeks.
Gleyber Torres: I faded him in most of my late-drafting leagues, concerned about his late-spring back issue, as I typically try not to draft players battling active injuries (except in the case of deep discounts). That injury hasn’t escaped my mind, and Torres’ 2.7 mph decline in average bat speed thus far seems uncharacteristic of him. He’s also sporting a career-high 44.2% ground ball rate, as well as a career-low 20.9% hard-hit rate, thus far.
Josh Naylor: He’s off to an uncharacteristically slow start, but what’s most troubling about it, fresh off a career-best, 30-SB campaign, is that he hasn’t even attempted a stolen base yet. Granted, Naylor has had only 12 opportunities all year, largely because his on-base percentage is .214, but Dan Wilson’s Mariners rank in the middle as far as green lights on the basepaths, after finishing third in attempts for the full 2025 and first during the second half.
