Super Bowl 2026 longshots: Cowboys, Giants among biggest risers

As the calendar turns to May, NFL teams begin to shift how they operate. Instead of being hyper-focused on roster construction, their efforts now primarily move toward building a foundation with the players and coaches they have in-house for the 2026 regular season. 

With the main waves of free agency and the NFL Draft now behind them, major acquisitions will be few and far between, and what we see when we look at these rosters is largely what we’ll get come September. So, who improved the most this offseason?

Every year, a few franchises carry the momentum of a strong offseason and catapult themselves not only into playoff contention but into legitimate Super Bowl contention. Take last year’s New England Patriots, for example. They finished dead last in their division the previous year, but thanks to savvy additions, a new head coach and their young quarterback ascending in Year 2, they found themselves playing in Super Bowl LX.

Now, we’re going to sift through all 32 teams and identify clubs that could find themselves on a similar trajectory in 2026.

Before we get started, however, let’s go over a few ground rules. First, the teams we discuss must have missed the playoffs in 2025. To avoid simply looking at teams like the Ravens and Chiefs, we’re also making it a bit more challenging with our second rule: These teams must have current odds of +2000 or longer to win Super Bowl LXI on DraftKings. Fair enough?

Alright, let’s highlight five teams that have thrust themselves into the Super Bowl conversation thanks, in part, to their moves in free agency and the NFL Draft. 

Note: “(R)” signifies a 2026 NFL Draft pick.

Cincinnati Bengals (+2200)

Notable offseason additions: DT Dexter Lawrence, DT Jonathan Allen, EDGE Boye Mafe, S Bryan Cook, EDGE Cashius Howell (R)

Cincinnati already has the bones of a Super Bowl contender, with Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins headlining the offense. They slip just under our guidelines, however, because that pesky defense — coupled with poor injury luck — has kept them from reaching their full potential in the Burrow era.

And when I say “pesky” defense, I mean downright bad.

They became the first team in NFL history to allow 27 or more points and 350 or more total yards in eight straight games within a season. They also were the first team since the 1966 Giants to lose consecutive games despite scoring 38 or more points.

Fortunately for Burrow and Bengals fans alike, the front office made it a point to address those deficiencies this offseason. In free agency, Cincinnati signed defensive end Boye Mafe to a three-year, $60 million deal, defensive tackle Jonathan Allen to a two-year, $28 million contract and safety Bryan Cook to a three-year, $40.25 million deal. The Bengals didn’t stop there. Armed with the No. 10 overall pick, they traded the selection to the New York Giants to acquire All-Pro defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence.

When you factor in Day 2 draft additions like Texas A&M pass rusher Cashius Howell and Washington cornerback Tacario Davis, Cincinnati has effectively overhauled that side of the ball. And if 2025 first-round edge rusher Shemar Stewart takes a step forward in his sophomore season, they’ll really be cooking with gas.

The front office made the necessary investments on defense, and if this unit can climb from the basement to even league average, that could be enough for Cincinnati to emerge from the AFC with Burrow and Co. leading the way.

Dallas Cowboys (+2500)

Notable offseason additions: LB Dee Winters, CB Cobie Durant, S Jalen Thompson, EDGE Rashan Gary, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, S Caleb Downs (R), EDGE Malachi Lawrence (R)

The Cowboys have spent the past two seasons on the outside looking in at the playoffs. Similar to what we just discussed with Cincinnati, the blame largely falls on the shoulders of the defense, which was abysmal in 2025. 

Dallas allowed the most points per game (30.1) and the most passing yards per game (251.5) in the NFL last season. In the nine games Dallas surrendered 30 or more points, the club went just 2-6-1. All of that came despite an offense that scored 27.7 points per game, the seventh-most in the league.

Given those defensive struggles, the bulk of Jerry Jones’ offseason efforts centered on improving that side of the ball. Perhaps the most notable addition came when star Ohio State safety Caleb Downs slid outside the top 10, prompting Dallas to trade up to No. 11 overall to land him.

Downs has the talent to become the face of Dallas’ defense for years to come, which is a welcome sight for a unit that surrendered a league-high 4,276 passing yards in 2025. His arrival further raises the ceiling of the safety room after Dallas signed former Cardinals safety Jalen Thompson to a three-year, $36 million contract in free agency.

Meanwhile, Dallas used the No. 23 overall pick on edge rusher Malachi Lawrence, continuing its effort to rebuild the front seven. During draft weekend, the Cowboys also traded for veteran linebacker Dee Winters, who could wear the green dot for new defensive coordinator Christian Parker. In March, Dallas also acquired Rashan Gary, adding yet another new face to the defense.

All of these changes should elevate the defense to a more respectable level. If Downs and Lawrence pop in Year 1, Dallas could surprise people and finally fulfill its fan base’s annual proclamation that this is actually “the year.”

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Minnesota Vikings (+5500)

Notable offseason additions: QB Kyler Murray, DL Caleb Banks (R), LB Jake Golday (R)

The Vikings’ biggest issue in 2025 was under center. Letting Sam Darnold — and even Daniel Jones — walk in favor of 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy proved to be a monumental mistake. In his first season as the full-time starter, McCarthy struggled with durability issues and poor play when he was on the field.

That was enough for Minnesota to fire general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and effectively pull the plug on the McCarthy era by signing Kyler Murray in free agency and re-signing veteran Carson Wentz. While head coach Kevin O’Connell has discussed a competition for the Week 1 job, Murray is clearly positioned as QB1 entering 2026, dramatically raising Minnesota’s ceiling.

Outside of quarterback, Minnesota already has a roster capable of competing in the NFC, as evidenced by its 14-3 campaign in 2024 with Darnold. If O’Connell can get top-tier play out of Murray, the Vikings should immediately find themselves back in the thick of the NFC North race.

That was Minnesota’s most impactful move this offseason, but we’ll also keep an eye on what its rookie class can produce. Selecting Florida defensive tackle Caleb Banks at No. 18 overall was a true roll of the dice. He’s tremendously talented and possesses top-tier upside, but his checkered injury history — including foot surgery after suffering an injury at the NFL Scouting Combine — creates some risk. As for second-round linebacker Jake Golday, he should step in as an immediate Day 1 starter for Brian Flores’ defense.

Washington Commanders (+6500)

Notable offseason additions: EDGE Odafe Oweh, EDGE K’Lavon Chaisson, TE Chig Okonkwo, LB Sonny Styles (R), WR Antonio Williams (R)

Washington struck gold when it selected Jayden Daniels No. 2 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. As a rookie, Daniels helped lead the Commanders to the NFC Championship Game, proving early that he could get this franchise knocking on the door of a Super Bowl. But everything unraveled in his sophomore season, which included Daniels missing 10 games due to injury.

Beyond getting Daniels healthy, Washington also needed to improve the roster around him. Defensively, the Commanders are coming off a 2025 season in which they allowed 26.5 points per game (sixth-most), 4,122 passing yards (fifth-most) and 2,411 rushing yards (third-most).

This offseason, GM Adam Peters aggressively addressed those issues. In free agency, Washington signed edge rushers Odafe Oweh and K’Lavon Chaisson. Oweh broke out after being traded to the Chargers in October, tallying 10.5 sacks in 13 games, including the playoffs. Chaisson is also coming off the best season of his career, posting 10.5 sacks across the regular season and playoffs while recording 20 postseason pressures.

While Oweh and Chaisson should stabilize the edge positions, the true game-changer for this defense may be Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles, whom Washington selected No. 7 overall. Styles has the talent to emerge as one of the best defensive players in this class and should make an immediate impact.

Meanwhile, Washington also prioritized giving Daniels more help offensively. Third-round Clemson receiver Antonio Williams is an intriguing addition, but former Titans tight end Chig Okonkwo may be one of the more underrated acquisitions of the offseason. There’s also still a possibility Washington adds disgruntled 49ers receiver Brandon Aiyuk.

With Daniels healthy and the roster significantly improved, Washington appears primed for a bounce-back season that could once again land it in the NFC title picture.

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New York Giants (+7000)

Notable offseason additions: LB Tremaine Edmunds, CB Greg Newsome II, FB Patrick Richard, WR Darnell Mooney, TE Isaiah Likely, EDGE/LB Arvell Reese (R), OT Francis Mauigoa (R), WR Malachi Fields (R)

I’m not entirely sure why, but I apparently love the NFC East, as three teams from the division landed on this list as possible breakout Super Bowl contenders. With that in mind, it may be worth sprinkling a future on the NFC East to produce the Super Bowl champion at +700, but that’s a conversation for another day.

As for the Giants, they give off Patriots vibes from last season. They appear to have identified their young quarterback of the future entering Year 2, possess a solid nucleus of young talent, added key pieces throughout the offseason and, perhaps most importantly, have a stud first-year head coach in John Harbaugh. That’s a recipe for a rapid turnaround, especially when you factor in a last-place schedule.

Because they already have Jaxson Dart, New York didn’t need to chase a quarterback. Instead, the Giants focused on other key needs. In the draft, Ohio State linebacker Arvell Reese fell into their lap at No. 5 overall, adding even more talent to what could quietly become one of the NFL’s sleeper defenses alongside Brian Burns, Abdul Carter and, for now, Kayvon Thibodeaux.

While losing Dexter Lawrence hurts, the Giants used that trade to acquire the No. 10 overall pick, which they turned into franchise tackle Francis Mauigoa to better protect Dart. As long as Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo stay healthy, Dart has quality young weapons around him. New York also added Isaiah Likely and Darnell Mooney this offseason to further strengthen the supporting cast.

The Giants are a legitimate breakout candidate entering 2026.