Memorial Day is over, June is nearly here, and if you are just tuning into the midterm elections, we are here to catch you up.
The midterms will determine which party will control the House and Senate and therefore how much legislative power President Trump will be able to flex for the rest of his term. They will also decide governor’s races and control of legislatures in many states around the country.
The midterms come as Mr. Trump’s approval rating, a typical predictor of how a president’s party will fare in an election, has sunk to a second-term low. The war in the Middle East and Mr. Trump’s handling of the economy, which had previously been one of his strengths, have fueled discontent among voters. As a result, Democrats see a favorable environment heading into the summer and fall.
Still, Republicans have gained a significant structural advantage through redistricting, helped by favorable court rulings. The unusual mid-decade fight has involved redrawing congressional maps for partisan edge.
Mr. Trump has also maintained an enduring vise over his party’s base, successfully involving himself in primaries to oust Republicans whom he views as insufficiently loyal. The latest test of his power will come on Tuesday night in Texas, as Senator John Cornyn tries to fend off a Republican primary runoff challenge from Ken Paxton, the state’s attorney general, whom Mr. Trump endorsed last week.
Here is a look at some of the biggest factors in the midterm primaries so far.
Trump’s hold on the G.O.P.
Mr. Trump has dominated the Republican primaries, a full decade after he secured his first presidential nomination, even through his fallen popularity with independent and Democratic voters.
If Mr. Paxton were to win on Tuesday, he would become the second Trump-endorsed challenger to oust a sitting senator this year, after Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana failed to even make the runoff in his state earlier this month. Mr. Trump also helped a Republican challenger defeat Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky last week.
Mr. Cornyn has been an occasional critic of the president, while Mr. Massie has been a vocal Trump skeptic. Mr. Cassidy voted five years ago to convict Mr. Trump during his second impeachment trial.
Earlier in the midterms, Mr. Trump successfully recruited challengers who ousted five Republican state senators in Indiana after the incumbents had refused to redraw congressional districts in the state more favorable to the Republican Party.
Democratic enthusiasm
Democrats have turned out in big numbers to vote, suggesting they have been more enthusiastic than Republicans to go to the polls during the primaries. Last week, nearly 150,000 more Democrats than Republicans voted in the open primaries for governor in Georgia.
That enthusiasm has also helped Democrats win a string of special elections seen as indicators of how voters are leaning.
Still, polls have shown that many Americans do not view the Democratic Party favorably. Its branding problems and intraparty divisions over its future will remain even if it pulls off victories in November.
A Republican campaign that began last year to redraw congressional districts and maximize the party’s structural advantage in a challenging political environment has been largely successful after a big assist from both state and federal courts.
Though Democrats tried to go toe to toe with Republicans on the redistricting fight, Republicans are expected to gain about six to 12 G.O.P.-leaning districts before the midterms.
A landmark Supreme Court ruling narrowed the Voting Rights Act, prompting a scramble in Republican-led states to redraw their maps, and a decision by the Virginia Supreme Court struck down a newly gerrymandered map in the state, erasing a potential Democratic pickup of as many as four seats.
In several large states, like Texas, California and Florida, a number of incumbents had their seats eliminated, retired or were forced into Democratic primary challenges.
The money advantage
Democratic candidates have so far out-raised their Republican opponents in most key Senate races. In particular, James Talarico, the Democratic Senate nominee in Texas, has emerged as one of the party’s top fund-raisers.
But Republicans and their allies have hundreds of millions of dollars in super PACs and other political committees waiting to disrupt the midterm campaigns. Their cash advantage is roughly $600 million over their Democratic counterparts, as of the end of March.
The disparity can be traced in part to the Democratic National Committee’s fund-raising struggles and to the war chest of more than $356 million amassed by Mr. Trump’s super PAC. Republicans are also likely to be the beneficiary of financial backing from the deep-pocketed cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence industries.
