Welcome to another Primary Eve.
On Tuesday, Maine, North Dakota, Nevada and South Carolina are holding primary contests, and my colleagues and I will be covering key races in those states all day.
But tonight, I wanted to focus on a few big questions I have about two fascinating Senate primary races unfolding in Maine and South Carolina.
How divided are Maine Democrats?
I’ve been on hiatus from On Politics for the past week or so in order to write about some of the wild developments in the Maine Senate race, where Graham Platner is the presumptive Democratic nominee against Senator Susan Collins, a Republican. The contest is essential to Democrats’ hopes of retaking the Senate.
To catch you up quickly: Two Saturdays ago, my colleague Lisa Lerer and I (and our friends at The Wall Street Journal) reported that Platner’s wife told his campaign last summer that he had been exchanging sexual messages with other women. The conduct had stopped, a campaign official told us, before his candidacy began — but news of the sexting scandal seemed to rock the race.
Then, on Thursday, Lisa and I reported on three women — one a Virginia conservative, the other two Maine Democrats — who had been romantically involved with Platner, describing volatile and “toxic” relationships. One described physical altercations, a claim he has denied and suggested was politically motivated.
What does all of this mean for Platner’s showing in the primary tomorrow?
Technically, as Gov. Janet Mills has pointedly reminded everyone, her name remains on the Democratic primary ballot even though she suspended her campaign in April. Is there a sizable protest vote for her? Do some voters participate in the contested primary for governor but skip voting in the Senate race?
Or has the scrutiny of Platner prompted Democrats to close ranks around him, further energizing his many die-hard supporters who see him as a fighter for working people?
We’ll get a better sense tomorrow night, but if you’re curious in the meantime, my colleagues have a dispatch from the ground capturing how some Maine voters are feeling right now.
What do Biden-Collins voters make of this race?
We won’t immediately know the answer to this. But once the general-election matchup is set tomorrow, I see this as one of the most urgent questions of the Senate contest.
In 2020, former President Joe Biden won Maine with 53 percent of the vote. Collins also won, outperforming President Trump by tens of thousands of votes, a result that suggested that crossover voters were a significant force.
This time around, it’s a midterm election year without Trump — the ultimate Republican motivator — on the ballot, while Democrats are bursting with enthusiasm to vote out Republicans at every level of government.
How do Democratic-leaning voters who have backed Collins as recently as 2020 view what we expect will be a Platner-Collins matchup? (Also, to our Maine readers, if that’s you — I’d love to hear your thoughts! I’m at katie.glueck@nytimes.com.)
Can Lindsey Graham avoid a runoff?
Senator Lindsey Graham, the critic-turned-ally of Trump from South Carolina, is up for re-election this year and has the president’s endorsement.
But he also faces a Republican primary challenge from a self-funding businessman, Mark Lynch, who is running to his right.
Graham’s supporters have started to spend heavily on his behalf as he works to secure a majority of the primary vote. If he doesn’t pull that off, the two candidates will head to a June 23 runoff. Can the veteran senator wrap up this race tomorrow?
quote of the day
“You don’t ever put words in the mouth of the president.”
That was Representative Mike Collins, the favorite in next week’s Republican primary runoff for Senate in Georgia, noting that even though people ask him “all the time” if President Trump has backed him, the endorsement has yet to arrive.
But Collins, who is up against Derek Dooley, a former football coach endorsed by Gov. Brian Kemp, told my colleague Patricia Mazzei that he’s still hoping for a last-minute nod.
Raphael Warnock on ‘The Interview’
Senator Raphael Warnock, the Democrat from Georgia, spoke to my colleague David Marchese about voting rights, what he thinks certain Republicans get wrong about religion and his family’s story.
TAKE OUR QUIZ
This question comes from a recent article in The Times. Click an answer to see if you’re right. (The link will be free.)
Which Republican senator, who once called President Trump a “demagogue” but has since become a staunch ally, faces a primary election on Tuesday?
Taylor Robinson contributed reporting.
