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The Conservatives’ thumping win in Aberdeen South — their first Westminster by-election gain in Scotland for almost 60 years — vindicated their strategy of making the contest a “referendum on oil and gas”.
Douglas Lumsden took almost 50 per cent of the vote on the back of a campaign painting both Labour and the incumbent Scottish National Party as enemies of the industry, which has been struggling under high taxes and the UK government’s limits on new exploration.
The result — a 25 percentage-point increase from the party’s performance in the 2024 general election — was a relief for the Tories after their devastating losses at last month’s local elections.
Lumsden said: “The people of Aberdeen South have spoken and their message to the Labour and SNP governments is crystal clear: end the war on North Sea oil and gas immediately. It’s time to get drilling in the North Sea again. The ban on new licences and the windfall tax must both go.”
Referring to Andy Burnham’s victory in the Makerfield by-election and the expectation that he will now try to oust Sir Keir Starmer as UK prime minister, Tory leader Kemi Badenoch said: “The Makerfield by-election was about one man’s job. The Aberdeen South by-election was about thousands of jobs, all over the country, but especially in the oil and gas sector.”
Speaking at a victory rally on Friday, she called for the government to “lift the ban on new oil and gas licences”, accusing it of “killing our energy security”.
“A message has been sent that we do need to drill our own oil in the North Sea, not take oil from Russia or Norway when we’ve got our own oil right here,” she added. One Labour figure said the government would resist Badenoch’s call.
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The by-election illustrated the depth of feeling in Aberdeen, where the city’s economic fortunes have struggled amid 1,000 job losses a month in the UK-wide oil and gas industry.
With 75 per cent of the UK’s total energy demand still reliant on oil and gas, the industry says new exploration would slow production declines in the maturing basin of the North Sea, thereby boosting energy security and lowering reliance on more carbon-intensive imports.
The Unite union, which has campaigned against job losses in the sector, said Labour’s energy policies had been an “abject failure” that amounted to “industrial vandalism”.
The governing Labour Party plunged from second place in Aberdeen South in 2024 to fourth.
The Conservatives’ gain added to a disappointing night for populist Reform UK, who had poured money into targeted social media ads in the constituency in the hope of blocking a Tory win. Nigel Farage’s party only increased its vote share by two percentage points.
The SNP’s Stephen Flynn, whose election to Holyrood last month triggered the by-election, described the defeat for colleague Richard Thomson as a tough night “that some will need to reflect on, quite heavily”.
Flynn has led efforts within the party to promote a clearer-eyed defence of the oil and gas industry, especially since the Iran war caused widespread fears of escalating energy bills.
Under previous first minister Nicola Sturgeon, the party drafted an energy strategy that included a “presumption against” new oil and gas exploration in the North Sea.
But the SNP has now edged towards a more nuanced position, emphasising the need for energy security as well as climate compatibility when assessing new oil and gas projects.
The party, which must appeal to both pro-oil constituencies in Scotland’s north-east and climate-focused voters in the central belt, has left itself open to accusations of being two-faced on the issue.
The £400,000 expenses scandal surrounding its former chief executive and Sturgeon’s ex-husband, Peter Murrell, has also overshadowed the contest.
Joanna Cherry, a former SNP MP, said the party’s failure to grip energy policy had caused the loss, refusing to blame Flynn or Thomson, describing it on X as “the product of years of equivocation and virtue signalling on energy policy without any real steps”.
“Of course, the Murrell scandal and the cover-up won’t have helped either,” she added.
