And then there were two. It seems either West Ham or Tottenham will be the final team relegated from the Premier League this season, and, with three games to go, their next matches – both live on Sky Sports – could be decisive in the fight for survival.
Back-to-back wins for Spurs under Roberto De Zerbi has flipped the narrative and pulled them out of the bottom three, where West Ham currently reside, but by the time Tottenham face Leeds on Monday night they could be back in the drop zone.
The Hammers, currently one point adrift of Spurs, would have to beat title favourites Arsenal, who have turned a corner themselves of late, to usurp their rivals, while a repeat of last weekend’s defeat at Brentford could prove fatal.
Mathematically, nothing can be decided in this next round of fixtures, but if Spurs open up a four-point gap, then Nuno Espirito Santo’s side will find themselves with very little room for manoeuvre and relying on two slip ups from their rivals in their final two games.
What does Opta’s supercomputer say?
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Highlights from the Premier League match between Aston Villa and Tottenham Hotspur.
There was a big swing in the relegation probabilities after the last round of games as West Ham lost 3-0 at Brentford on Saturday before Spurs produced their most convincing performance of 2026 the following day to win 2-1 at Aston Villa and move out of the bottom three.
Opta’s supercomputer is currently projecting West Ham as having more than 80 per cent chance of going down, while Spurs are at 19.3 per cent, which is some turnaround from a week ago.
At the beginning of May, before the win at Villa, Spurs were deemed to have a 59 per cent chance of being relegated but that has shot down, while West Ham’s have gone sharply in the other direction. Their chances of going down have more than doubled since then.
The bookies also consider West Ham to be favourites to go down heading into this weekend’s games. The Hammers are 1/4 to be relegated, while you can get 3/1 on Spurs.
There is still an outside chance of Nottingham Forest, Crystal Palace or Leeds United slipping back into the bottom three. Opta is currently projecting them as having less than a one per cent chance of going down.
Mathematically, 13th-placed Newcastle could still be relegated, but it would require them losing every game and West Ham winning every game as well as a goal difference swing of 17.
Most bookies are offering odds of 125/1 for Leeds and Forest to be relegated, while Palace are up at 150/1, and you will struggle to find bookmakers offering odds on Newcastle.
What does the form tell us?
This has become one of the most competitive Premier League relegation battles of the last two decades, which makes it much harder to predict what is going to happen in the final few weeks of the season.
Recent results at the bottom more closely resemble a title race than a relegation scrap.
Despite the defeat at Brentford, West Ham have been the sixth best team in the Premier League since January 17, when they defeated Spurs 1-0 at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, and they are closely followed by Nottingham Forest.
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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from the Premier League match between Brentford and West Ham.
Spurs’ turnaround has been more recent, thanks to the arrival of De Zerbi, and in the four games he has overseen, they have been in the top half for form, picking up seven points, the same total as West Ham over that period.
The form table somewhat challenges the idea that West Ham have a much tougher matchup in their next game.
In Leeds, Spurs are playing the second-best team in the Premier League over those last four matches and the fourth-best team over the last six matches, a period in which Daniel Farke’s side have gone unbeaten.
Two of Leeds’ wins over that period came against the relegated teams, Burnley and Wolves, but they handled both with ease and claimed a big win against third-placed Manchester United, their first at Old Trafford since 1981. They are not to be underestimated.
Arsenal sit below Leeds – as well as Spurs and West Ham – in the form table over the last four games. They have faced a tougher schedule and appear to have overcome their momentary wobble, but it shows the Gunners are there to be got at.
West Ham also have recent form for denting Arsenal’s title bids, drawing 2-2 at the London Stadium in 2023 when Bukayo Saka missed a penalty, and inflicting a 1-0 defeat on the Gunners at the Emirates Stadium in February 2025.
Who has the toughest fixtures?
Only Crystal Palace and Brentford are deemed to have a harder schedule than West Ham by Opta for the Premier League run-in – and their next match is the hardest of them all.
It is never a good time to play the Premier League leaders, but at crunch time in the season, with a first title in more than two decades on the line, this seems to be the worst possible time to be playing Arsenal, who are just three wins from ending their drought.
Especially when you consider the momentum behind Mikel Arteta’s side, fresh from defeating Atletico Madrid to reach their first Champions League final for 20 years, and a win over Fulham which showed a return to the formidable form that has brought them here.
West Ham, who are effectively two points adrift of Spurs because of their inferior goal difference, then face a trip to Newcastle before welcoming Leeds to the London Stadium on the final day.
In comparison, Spurs are rated as having the eighth easiest schedule in the Premier League, with Monday’s game against Leeds followed by a trip to out-of-form Chelsea, who have lost their last six games in the competition, and a home game against Everton.
How many points needed for survival?
The Opta supercomputer projects 40 points to be enough to secure Premier League survival. In the last nine Premier League seasons, teams finishing on 36 points or more have avoided relegation, which is exactly where West Ham are right now.
Last season, 26 points would have been enough to stay up as an exceptionally poor bottom three of Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton all made an immediate return to the Championship.
Spurs took advantage of the trio’s weaknesses to focus on winning the Europa League as they finished a dismal 17th on 38 points – 13 points above 18th-placed Leicester.
But that luxury for Tottenham is not there this season as they face the very real possibility of relegation to the second tier of English football for the first time since 1977.
Only three teams have been relegated with 40 points or more in the 20-team Premier League era – Sunderland (1996/97), Bolton (1997/98) and West Ham (2002/03) – the latter holding the record for the team relegated with the most points with 42.
Watch West Ham vs Arsenal on Sunday, live on Sky Sports Premier League from 4pm; kick-off 4.30pm.
Sunday 10th May 4:00pm
Kick off 4:30pm
Watch Tottenham vs Leeds on Monday, live on Sky Sports Premier League from 6.30pm; kick-off 8pm.
Monday 11th May 6:30pm
Kick off 8:00pm
