Tottenham’s relegation fears intensified with their 3-1 loss at home to Crystal Palace on Thursday night as a miserable season teeters towards full-blown disaster.
Their latest collapse, which featured a Micky van de Ven red card and three Crystal Palace goals in the space of 19 first-half minutes, extended their winless run to 11 league games. They have lost five in a row in the Premier League for the first time in 22 years.
As Igor Tudor struggles to reverse the tide following his appointment in place of the sacked Thomas Frank, Spurs sit only a point above the drop zone with a trip to Anfield to face Liverpool, live on Sky Sports on Sunday March 15, to come next.
How did a season that started positively unravel so dramatically?
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Which of the relegation candidates is at most risk?
From Champions League places to drop fears
Frank’s tenure would spiral rapidly but it began with three wins from four Premier League games. Victories at the Etihad Stadium (remember that?) and the London Stadium made him only the third Spurs boss in history to win his first two top-flight away fixtures.
With the 3-0 win over West Ham on September 13, Spurs moved level on points with Arsenal, who now look well-placed to compound their rivals’ misery by ending their wait for a Premier League title.
While Arsenal started to consolidate their position at the top of the table, Spurs plummeted into the bottom half with a five-game winless run between November and December.
A 2-0 win over Frank’s former club Brentford on December 6 briefly lifted them back into the top half, but back-to-back defeats to Nottingham Forest and Liverpool followed. Soon, concerns over securing a European finish made way to genuine fear of relegation.
Frank was sacked on February 11 with Spurs 16th. They remain there under Igor Tudor but with the gap to the drop zone now reduced to a solitary point. Their probability of relegation, according to Opta, has reached a season high of 16 per cent.
On the back of last season’s 17th-placed finish, Opta’s statistical relegation probability for Spurs was 13 per cent in August. It has risen along with the anxiety levels of their fans, although many might argue, after another loss, that it remains on the generous side.
The underlying data, which comprises expected goals and expected goals against, suggests Spurs are exactly where they ‘should’ be, based on the level of their performances.
Our ‘expected’ table, based on the Sky Sports xG formula, has relegation rivals West Ham above them. Spurs are level with Wolves for expected points, and ahead of Nottingham Forest, Sunderland and Burnley, who occupy the bottom three places.
Injuries, ill-discipline and upheaval
The defeat to Palace, in which Spurs capitulated despite taking the lead through Dominic Solanke, took their total of points lost from winning positions to 15 this season, raising more questions about mentality and continuing a theme of last season.
Pedro Porro reacts angrily to being substituted against Crystal Palace
Since the start of last term, Spurs’ total of 44 points lost from winning positions is the highest of any Premier League team, with Fulham next on 39. The Premier League average in that time frame, excluding promoted and relegated teams, is 31.
The game highlighted other issues too, including injuries. Tudor only had 15 senior outfield players available against Palace, and had to name a third goalkeeper and three academy players to fill out his bench. His options were even more limited for the 4-1 loss to Arsenal.
Spurs have lost a combined 1,528 days to injuries this season, a total nearly 25 per cent higher than any other side. James Maddison and Dejan Kulusevski have not featured at all. Other injury absentees include starters Destiny Udogie and Mohammed Kudus.
Last season’s Europa League triumph clinched Champions League qualification but juggling European and domestic fixtures has made the challenge of managing a threadbare squad even tougher.
Injuries were similarly prevalent last season under Ange Postecoglou but Tottenham’s ill-discipline appears a more recent development. Van de Ven’s red card comes weeks after his centre-back partner Cristian Romero received his second of the campaign.
Micky van de Ven was sent off in the first half against Crystal Palace
Spurs are up to four this season in total, having only received one last term. They have already passed last season’s total of yellow cards, having had 74, up from 70, with nine games left to play. Their combined cards total is the highest in the division.
It has all played out to a backdrop of upheaval. Frank was criticised for his failure to introduce a discernible playing style and Tudor’s appointment has not yet added any clarity.
Tudor, like Frank before him, has chopped and changed between systems and personnel. Spurs’ total of 82 line-up changes is the second-highest in the Premier League this season behind Chelsea. Only three sides have used more starting formations.
The inconsistency might be another contributor to their chaotic displays.
So what now?
It remains to be seen whether the Spurs hierarchy will be tempted into another change of head coach as speculation continues around Tudor’s future just weeks after his appointment.
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Tottenham Hotspur head coach Igor Tudor says he believes more in his team after his side’s 3-1 defeat to Crystal Palace than ever before
Sky Sports News reports that the 47-year-old is still scheduled to take charge of Tottenham’s press conference on Monday ahead of their Champions League clash with Atletico Madrid.
Tudor insists he was encouraged by elements of their performance against Palace and feels results will improve as their injured players return, but the fixture list looks daunting.
The average league position of their remaining nine opponents is 11.11, but they include Aston Villa and Chelsea, as well as Liverpool, in addition to three ‘six-pointers’ against relegation rivals Nottingham Forest, Wolves and Leeds. It’s little wonder fans are worried.
