The Supreme Court’s ruling that states can block trans women and girls from competing in female events allows 27 states to keep their bans in place. It does not require any action from the other 23 states, though they’re already feeling pressure from advocates.
“Blue states with boys on girls’ podiums … you’re next,” Kristen Waggoner, the president of the Alliance Defending Freedom, posted on social media soon after the court ruled on Tuesday. Her organization defended the laws in Idaho and West Virginia that prompted the decision, and is eager to see similar laws enacted nationwide — whether by lawmakers, judges or voters.
Ballot questions addressing the participation of transgender athletes are moving forward in Colorado and Washington, both Democratic-led states. The Trump administration has announced dozens of investigations into transgender sports policies. And the Justice Department has filed lawsuits seeking to overturn a California law protecting the rights of students to participate in sports aligned with their gender identity, as well as similar policies in Minnesota.
As the midterm elections loom, Democratic candidates may also come under political pressure on the topic. In a Gallup survey last spring, about two-thirds of adults, including four in 10 Democrats, said they believed that transgender athletes should be limited to teams that match their sex assigned at birth.
A few prominent Democrats, including Gov. Gavin Newsom of California, have suggested that they see transgender athlete participation as unfair. A trans high school senior in California shared two state titles in May, in the high jump and triple jump, with the girl who finished in the place behind her, under a policy created last year.
The 27 states that have enacted bans on trans athletes all have Republican-led legislatures. In light of the ruling on Tuesday, transgender advocates said it was important to shore up policies that support trans athlete participation in Democratic-led states.
Beyond excluding transgender athletes, bans based on biological sex invite scrutiny of students who do not conform to feminine stereotypes, advocates have said. “We must all call on states to adopt inclusive policies so that no one gets left behind,” Kelley Robinson, president of the Human Rights Campaign, an L.G.B.T.Q. advocacy group, said in a statement.
The legal battles in state and federal courts will most likely continue to focus on Title IX, the federal law that bans discrimination in public education based on sex.
In its lawsuit against California, the Trump administration has argued that if a school chooses to separate teams by sex, the teams designated for women and girls cannot include individuals who have a female gender identity, but whose biological sex is male.
In upholding the Idaho and West Virginia laws banning transgender athlete participation, the Supreme Court endorsed a definition of sex that seemed to support that view.
Justice Brett Kavanaugh, writing for the conservative majority, said that the word “sex” in Title IX “cannot plausibly be interpreted to refer to anything other than biological sex.”
But the opinion also steered clear of determining whether the law explicitly prevents transgender students from participating in sports that align with their gender identity.
“This is a policy question that different states can come to different conclusions on,” said Josh Block, an attorney with the A.C.L.U. who represented Becky Pepper-Jackson, the athlete challenging West Virginia’s ban.
Justice Kavanaugh, a longtime youth basketball coach, also wrote that the desire of transgender athletes to participate “warrants respect,” and that no student athlete, “whether a biological female or transgender, deserves to be ostracized or vilified.”
Ann E. Marimow and Juliet Macur contributed reporting.
