Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at the biggest issues on NATO’s agenda, China test-firing a ballistic missile, and a funeral procession for former Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The Future of NATO
It’s a precarious time for the world’s largest military alliance. U.S. President Donald Trump continues to undermine NATO with threats of withdrawal. Several member states are struggling to meet new defense spending requirements. Russia’s war against Ukraine remains a threat to European security. And differences over how to handle the Iran war risk exacerbating tensions among allies.
Welcome to NATO 3.0.
Dozens of foreign leaders will convene in Ankara, Turkey, on Tuesday for this year’s NATO leaders’ summit. According to NATO chief Mark Rutte, the two-day conference will focus on bolstering Europe’s defense responsibilities in an effort to keep Washington engaged in the alliance. This summit will be the beginning of a trans-Atlantic “defense industrial revolution,” Rutte said at the Atlantic Council last month.
Among European members, opinions of NATO remain high. A Pew Research Center survey released on Monday found that more than 70 percent of people in Poland, Sweden, Germany, and Hungary view the alliance favorably. Yet approval rates in several countries have declined—most notably in France, Italy, and the United States.
The White House, in particular, has grown disillusioned with the bloc, accusing members of placing the onus of their defense on Washington. “The United States spends more money on NATO than any other country, by far, to protect them, without getting any benefit from so doing,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Thursday.
At Trump’s urging, NATO allies agreed last year to increase their respective defense spending to at least 5 percent of GDP by 2035. Several countries appear on track to meet this minimum in time. However, the White House does not appear mollified. During this week’s summit, the United States plans to “take stock of our allies’ expanding NATO’s capabilities in support of the burden-shifting going on here on the European continent,” said Matt Whitaker, the U.S. ambassador to NATO, on Sunday.
“The United States remains a proud NATO member,” Whitaker added. But “we have responsibilities elsewhere in the world as the world’s only superpower.”
“I was never swayed by NATO,” Trump told the Telegraph in April. “I always knew they were a paper tiger.” At the time, Trump failed to rule out withdrawing from the alliance. And just two months later, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced a six-month review of the U.S. military’s presence in Europe that some fear will be used as a smoke screen to reduce the number of U.S. troops on the continent.
Although uneven defense spending has long frustrated Trump, NATO’s response to the Iran war (or lack thereof) has recently threatened to unravel the bloc. Trump has blasted NATO members for failing to adequately help U.S. forces during the conflict, despite the alliance maintaining that doing so would have gone beyond NATO’s purview. This week, foreign leaders are expected to discuss international efforts to secure the Strait of Hormuz.
However, a senior U.S. official told ABC News on Sunday that “many [NATO allies] don’t have the necessary ships or assets to contribute to a meaningful maritime effort” despite the fact that “we’ve had a lot of allies raise their hand and offer to participate.”
Iran is not the only conflict on NATO’s agenda this week. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will also be in attendance to push for greater Western military aid. All eyes will likely be on his meeting with Trump, during which Zelensky is expected to ask for more U.S.-made interceptors. The meeting will come just days after Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukraine killed at least 20 people.
For more NATO summit coverage, subscribe to FP’s Situation Report, which will have special editions this week from reporters John Haltiwanger and Rishi Iyengar, who are on the ground in Ankara.
Today’s Most Read
The World This Week
Tuesday, July 7: The two-day NATO leaders’ summit kicks off in Turkey.
French President Emmanuel Macron concludes a two-day trip to Syria.
Wednesday, July 8: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi begins a three-day trip to Australia.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney begins a three-day trip to Saudi Arabia.
Thursday, July 9: Former Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is buried.
Nominations open for the U.K. Labour Party’s leadership contest.
Monday, July 13: France convenes a two-day Coalition of the Willing meeting.
What We’re Following
Ballistic missile test. Chinese forces test-fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile in the Pacific Ocean on Monday, marking the country’s first such test in nearly two years. According to Chinese Senior Capt. Wang Xuemeng, a spokesperson for China’s navy, the launch was part of Beijing’s annual military training schedule, and “relevant nations” were given advance warning. “The operation was in accordance with international law and practice, targeting no specific country or objective,” Wang said.
Still, the overt display has heightened worries about Beijing’s expanding military capabilities. Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong called the test “destabilizing to the region,” New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters described the launch as an “unwelcome and concerning development,” and a Japanese government statement expressed “serious concerns regarding China’s increasingly active military activities.”
Monday’s launch came the same day that Australia and Fiji announced a mutual defense treaty and a regional security pact. The agreements are part of Canberra’s efforts to shore up regional support and push back against Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific. Last week, Australia and Vanuatu signed a bilateral security treaty; on Tuesday, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will travel to the Solomon Islands for security talks; and on Wednesday, Albanese will host the leaders of Tonga and Papua New Guinea, the latter of which signed a defense treaty with Australia in 2025 that will take effect that day.
In memoriam. The funeral procession for former Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei began on Monday, with hundreds of thousands of people flooding the streets to try to see his coffin. Noticeably absent was Khamenei’s son and successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, who has yet to appear publicly since his father’s death on Feb. 28, when U.S. and Israeli forces launched strikes on Iran.
Mojtaba’s absence was made further apparent by the rare presence of former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who attended despite years of estrangement from the killed leader. Also seen at the regime-organized procession on Monday was a symbolic “stoning the devil” ceremony. Although the Muslim tradition usually has practitioners target pillars representing the devil, Monday’s attendees instead threw pebbles at photos of Trump bearing the mark of a sniper’s crosshairs on his forehead. Chants included “Death to America” and “Kill Trump.”
Funeral ceremonies began on Saturday and are expected to last about a week. During this time, talks to secure a permanent U.S.-Iran cease-fire are likely to be a primary topic of the NATO leaders’ summit. According to Trump, negotiations were paused this week to allow Khamenei’s funeral to occur.
Impeachment trial. The Philippine Senate began impeachment proceedings on Monday against Vice President Sara Duterte, whose charges include publicly threatening to assassinate President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and his allies, amassing unexplained wealth, and misusing confidential state funds. If convicted, she could be permanently banned from holding public office, dashing her hopes to seek the presidency in 2028.
“This is the moment when the republic must demonstrate that laws are applied equally to the powerful and the powerless alike,” said Rep. Gerville Luistro, who is leading the prosecution team. The trial is expected to last 92 days. Duterte did not attend Monday’s session in person, and she continues to deny all charges.
Despite holding vastly different views than Marcos, Duterte joined his ticket in 2022 to secure votes. However, that union quickly collapsed after the vice president blamed the president for her father’s arrest. Duterte is the daughter of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, who was arrested last year on orders of the International Criminal Court for charges related to his deadly anti-drugs crackdown.
Sara Duterte needs 15 out of 24 senators to vote in her favor to avoid conviction. The Senate already holds a Marcos-leaning majority due to the recent removal of Duterte-aligned Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano and the election of Marcos-favored lawmaker Sherwin Gatchalian to be the body’s president. Any support for Duterte was further thrown into doubt on Monday, when Sen. Rodante Marcoleta (a fierce ally of the vice president) was arrested for allegedly violating anti-corruption laws by accepting $1.2 million from private donors during his 2025 Senate run. Marcoleta has denied any wrongdoing.
Odds and Ends
The United States and Belgium face off Monday evening to determine who will make it to the World Cup quarterfinals. But while the stakes are high, the politics surrounding the match are even higher. In an unprecedented move, Trump personally urged FIFA President Gianni Infantino to review a one-game ban on U.S. striker Folarin Balogun, who received a red card during Wednesday’s match against Bosnia and Herzegovina for putting his cleat on an opponent’s ankle. On Sunday, FIFA announced that it had suspended Balogun’s ban, and on Monday, it rejected Belgium’s appeal.
Although many soccer experts had questioned the red card ruling at the time, Trump’s involvement has prompted concerns that FIFA is making exceptions for Washington. “When money calls the shots, the World Cup loses all credibility,” Belgium’s Socialist Party said ahead of Monday’s game. “Adapting the rules to please Trump, trying to cheat to win—what a deplorable image for FIFA, for the soccer World Cup, and for the United States.”
