Operator
Good afternoon, and thank you for joining Garanti BBVA’s First Quarter 2026 Financial Results Webcast. Today, we are joined by our CEO, Mr. Mahmut Akten; our CFO, Mr. Atil Özus; and our Head of Investor Relations, Ms. Ceyda Akinç. Following management’s presentation, we will open the floor for questions. [Operator Instructions] Without further ado, I will now hand over to management.
Ceyda Akinç
Head of Investor Relations
Hello, everyone. We are pleased to be with you again following another quarter of strong financial performance. Before getting into our financial performance details, let’s, as usual, go over the macroeconomic environment we are in. Following 3.6% annual growth in ’25, we now cast a moderate GDP growth of 2.5% to 3% in first quarter. Although this probably remains a possibility, the physical destruction in the region suggests that the recovery on supply side will take time. Therefore, we evaluate such high risk to our 4% GDP growth forecast for ’26.
We have revised up our year-end policy rate assumptions from 32% to 35% alongside a higher inflation outlook. In line with our above 30% inflation expectation until September, we expect CBRT to keep this funding rate at 40% until June, and if conditions allow, limited rate cuts might resume in July.
Moving into current account balance, increased energy prices, and weaker export performance due to subdued external demand, put the pressure on the current account deficits. We now expect current account deficit to GDP to be around 3.2% versus around 2% estimate in
