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Fossil fuel power investment in the US is set to outpace China for the first time in decades thanks to a surge in gas-fired turbine orders, as companies rush to build out data centres.
The International Energy Agency has forecast US-based spending on power plants fuelled by coal and gas will reach $50bn this year, or some $3bn more than China, in data obtained by the FT.
The increased value of the US investment is the result of both the number of turbine orders as well as their rising price, which has jumped dramatically as demand has outstripped manufacturing capacity.
US-based customers ordered roughly 20GW of gas-fired turbines in the first quarter of 2026, according to the IEA. Modern AI facilities demand between 1GW and several gigawatts of power, or as much electricity as a major western city.
Most of the turbines appear to be for “behind the meter” electricity generation, where companies bypass the grid to produce their own power.
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Manufacturers including Siemens and GE Vernova are swamped by orders, as the hyperscalers including Alphabet, Amazon and Meta Platforms race to secure data centre supremacy. GE Vernova said in its first-quarter results that it had an order backlog of $18bn.
The rapid AI build-out is taking place as US President Donald Trump dismantles climate rules and clean energy incentives to promote the fossil fuel industry. Experts have warned that the Trump administration’s policies have significantly slowed the pace of decarbonisation.
Reid Ramdathsingh, a power analyst at consulting group Rystad Energy, said America’s plentiful gas supplies were an advantage as it works to increase its power capacity.
“Gas-fired turbines have seen a massive increase in price,” he said, noting the cost had risen from about $800 per kW to upwards of $2,500. Gas power was also playing an increased role in stabilising the grid as intermittent renewable energy sources such as solar and wind were added.
The data on the US fossil fuel investment surge comes after the Energy Institute’s annual Statistical Review of World Energy showed coal consumption in the US grew by 10 per cent during 2025.
This followed a 50 per cent increase in gas prices, which made burning coal more attractive, a trend that continued this year after the war in the Middle East.
China has continued to invest in coal-fired power plants but this capacity is cheaper to build in China compared with the cost of gas turbines in the US. At the same time, it has continued its rollout of renewable energy sources at a rapid pace.
By the end of 2025, China had about 1.2 terawatts of total solar capacity installed, or half of the global total. China adds more clean energy capacity annually than most countries possess in total.
Still, the annual review, formerly published by BP, showed fossil fuels continued to make up more than four-fifths of global energy supply, with carbon emissions climbing by 1.1 per cent in 2025.
“We see encouraging substitution of fossil fuels in power, yet global emissions continue to rise and energy security pressures intensify,” said Nick Wayth, chief executive of the Energy Institute.
“These findings underline the urgency of accelerating efficiency, electrification and investment in clean technologies worldwide.”
