For US rice farmers grappling with subsidised Asian exports and sky-high fertiliser prices, relief lies on their doorstep — yet frustratingly out of reach.
Cuba was the biggest US market for long-grain rice before the island’s 1959 communist revolution and producers in the southern rice belt are betting President Donald Trump’s pressure will reopen it as daily life for Cubans becomes increasingly desperate.
US farmers say it would be a lifeline for an industry “decimated” by domestic subsidies in India, Thailand, Vietnam and China. Rice imports have increased nearly fivefold in the past quarter-century.
“If we supplied even half [of Cuba’s needs] that would be a big shot in the arm for the rice industry in the US,” said Jeff Rutledge, a sixth-generation rice farmer in Jackson County, Arkansas, the top US rice-producing state. The area sown with long-grain rice in the US as a whole is expected to fall by nearly a fifth to 1.65mn acres this year — the lowest since 1983.
It would also aid Cubans suffering worsening blackouts, food shortages and galloping prices as Trump has instituted a near-total energy blockade on the island as part of his campaign to force regime change.
The US has indicted former president Raúl Castro on murder charges and sent an aircraft carrier strike group to the Caribbean to underscore implicit threats of military action as it negotiates with Havana to force political change and prisoner releases.
Just 90 miles from Florida and under a more than six-decade-long US trade embargo, Cuba produces only a fraction of the rice, poultry, corn and other commodities it needs, making it a tantalising growth market for American farmers who are lobbying the administration.
Despite the embargo, some US farm and other goods are allowed under strict financing conditions, and agricultural exports to Cuba have increased by more than 120 per cent since 2016. Last year, the total hit $477mn.
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Much of the rice, poultry and other US farm exports to Cuba are sold to small private-sector suppliers in the country or sent by relatives in the US via online platforms.
And there is plenty of capacity. Mike Strain, agriculture and forestry commissioner in Louisiana, another big rice and poultry producer, said his state’s exports to Cuba “could probably double”.
Rutledge said his farm had “ample supplies” after exporting less rice than usual this year because Asian nations such as India were “over subsidising and dumping cheap rice on the world market”. US long-grain rice exports are expected to fall to their lowest level in more than 25 years, according to the Department of Agriculture.
Rutledge added: “If somebody waved a magic wand and the Cuban market was open tomorrow, within the next two weeks, we could have rice in Cuba . . . The problem right now is the lack of currency or the lack of credit.”
One of Cuba’s main sources of hard currency — tourism — has dried up with holiday flights grounded because of a lack of jet fuel.
“We could readily send [agricultural exports] to them very efficiently,” Strain said, “but the Cuban people have to have the money to buy the products”.
The office of the US Trade Representative and the Department of Agriculture did not respond to requests for comment.
For now, Vietnam is helping Cuban farmers grow rice and China last month sent 15,000 tonnes of rice — the start of a promised 60,000 tonne donation.
But Arkansas and Louisiana are well positioned to boost exports to Cuba. “The transportation costs from here to there are considerably lower than anywhere else in the world, particularly rice and poultry, which are staples of the Cuban diet,” said Jarrod Yates, executive vice-president of the Arkansas Farm Bureau.
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“Our farmers are always looking for markets and because of the symmetry between what our top two commodities are and their top two needs are, it just matches up so well,” he added.” We could probably supply Cuba with almost as much as they would need.”
Squeezed US farmers could use the business as tariffs fail to stem the pain of Asian subsidies and the Iran war pushes up prices of crucial inputs such as fertiliser.
“It’s as bad as it’s ever been,” said Bobby Hanks, chief executive of Louisiana-based miller Supreme Rice.
“We’re going to be decimated because of these illegal subsidies that we’re competing against,” he added. “That really is our number one problem . . . fertiliser and fuel [prices] are adding fuel to the fire, so to speak.”
Deeper trade ties with Cuba “can be a solution”, said Hanks.
With the island virtually at breaking point, Strain, the Louisiana commissioner, said he saw no alternative.
“We’ve reached the point where . . . there’s no other option now [for Cuba],” he said. “I would hope by the end of the year that something has changed.”
More trade could also be a prelude to investment in the island.
“Ideally, you could talk about two-way trade, which is advantageous to us because it lowers our logistical costs when our containers come back to the US full,” said Paul Johnson at FocusCuba, a consultancy.
“If we can help some of the producers start increasing their production of citrus, tobacco, organic fruits and vegetables, winter vegetables, coffee . . . that would find a ready market in the United States,” he said.
He acknowledged that was “not appetising for most investors [yet] but they have their eye on it. But with a normal relationship, I see lots of business opportunities.”
