U.S. President Donald Trump abruptly announced an extension of the U.S.-Iran cease-fire on Tuesday, just hours after he threatened to resume bombing the country if a deal wasn’t reached before the truce was set to expire the following day. Citing Iran’s “seriously fractured” government, Trump said he would hold off attacking the country until its leaders could come up with a “unified proposal” for a peace deal. He didn’t provide a deadline.
This wasn’t the first time during the war that Trump rapidly shifted from warning Iran of impending violence and destruction to leaving the door open for diplomacy. The fact that he has repeatedly backed off such threats suggests that Trump is eager to end the conflict, which is unpopular in the United States and has caused a global energy crisis.
U.S. President Donald Trump abruptly announced an extension of the U.S.-Iran cease-fire on Tuesday, just hours after he threatened to resume bombing the country if a deal wasn’t reached before the truce was set to expire the following day. Citing Iran’s “seriously fractured” government, Trump said he would hold off attacking the country until its leaders could come up with a “unified proposal” for a peace deal. He didn’t provide a deadline.
This wasn’t the first time during the war that Trump rapidly shifted from warning Iran of impending violence and destruction to leaving the door open for diplomacy. The fact that he has repeatedly backed off such threats suggests that Trump is eager to end the conflict, which is unpopular in the United States and has caused a global energy crisis.
But the cease-fire is still on thin ice, and it’s unclear if another round of peace talks will occur. The U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports is still in place (though some ships are reportedly getting through), and Tehran still has a chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz. Iran on Wednesday fired on several vessels in the strait and seized two.
Trump’s contradictory rhetoric and actions throughout the war—and his record of taking military action against Iran amid ongoing negotiations—are also among the many reasons that a deal appears a distant possibility. Tehran, which has called the U.S. blockade a violation of the cease-fire, has made it clear that it doesn’t trust Trump. Mahdi Mohammadi, an advisor to Iranian parliamentary speaker and top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said the cease-fire extension means “nothing” and is just a “ploy to buy time for a surprise strike.” Ghalibaf on Wednesday also said a complete cease-fire only makes sense if the U.S. blockade ends.
Trump’s justification for extending the cease-fire—the fractured nature of Iran’s leadership as a result of the war—is also a major obstacle to a diplomatic resolution. There have already been many signs that Iran’s lead negotiators, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, are not on the same page as the hard-liners in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who appear to be tightening their grip on the country’s decision-making.
With the cease-fire hanging by a thread, here are five of the most pressing questions if the truce ultimately collapses.
Will Israel’s war against Hezbollah resume?
The cease-fire in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah, an Iran-aligned militant group, is also extremely fragile. Both sides have accused the other of violations since it went into effect last week, even amid ongoing diplomacy between Israel and the Lebanese government.
The truce is intrinsically linked to the U.S.-Iran cease-fire, though Israel and the United States initially refused to include Lebanon as part of that agreement despite Tehran’s insistence that it was included. Before Trump announced a 10-day truce in Lebanon on April 16, this disagreement almost derailed the U.S.-Iran cease-fire agreement altogether.
Lebanon is seeking an extension of its cease-fire, with further talks between Israeli and Lebanese diplomats set to occur in Washington on Thursday. But if the U.S.-Iran truce collapses, it could lead Israel to fully resume operations in Lebanon.
Will the United States launch a ground operation in Iran?
Prior to the announcement of the U.S.-Iran cease-fire, there was rampant speculation about the potential for Trump to put U.S. boots on the ground in Iran as part of a range of possible operations—including seizing Kharg Island, tiny but strategically vital, and securing Iran’s highly enriched uranium. Military experts have warned that such operations would be incredibly risky and put U.S. troops in grave danger. But it’s clear that the options remain on the table.
The United States has more than 50,000 troops deployed in the Middle East, including thousands of Marines and paratroopers and hundreds of special operations forces. Thousands of additional forces are also en route along with other military assets.
An operation to rescue crew members from a downed U.S. fighter jet in early April marks the only publicly acknowledged instance of U.S. ground forces entering Iran during the war so far. But if the cease-fire collapses, Trump could decide putting boots on the ground is necessary to ramp up pressure on Tehran and complete stated war objectives (despite his dubious claims that U.S. goals have already been achieved).
U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall, a Republican, during an interview with Newsmax on Wednesday agreed with the notion that the United States would have to go into Iran to “finish the job” if a peace agreement wasn’t reached in the coming weeks.
What are Iran’s remaining military capabilities?
Trump and top officials in his administration have repeatedly made sweeping claims about the impact of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran’s military. “We’ve taken out their navy. We’ve taken out their air force. We’ve taken out their leaders,” Trump said on Tuesday.
While there’s no doubt that the war has led to the deaths of numerous top Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and has significantly diminished Iran’s military, there are growing signs that the Trump administration has overstated the extent of the damage.
Between recently downing U.S. fighter jets and ongoing attacks on commercial vessels, it’s clear that Iran maintains an array of capabilities that will continue to pose a threat if the cease-fire falls apart.
Lt. Gen. James Adams, the head of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, last week told congressional lawmakers that Iran “retains thousands of missiles and one-way attack UAVs [drones] that can threaten U.S. and partner forces throughout the region, despite degradations to its capabilities from both attrition and expenditure.”
What happens to the Strait of Hormuz?
Given that control of the Strait of Hormuz is still being contested amid the cease-fire, this should be expected to continue if the truce collapses. Iran’s chokehold over the strait has proved to be its most significant leverage in the war, and Tehran seems poised to use control of the strategic waterway as a deterrent even after a potential peace agreement. The future of the Strait of Hormuz is perhaps the biggest unresolved issue of the conflict as things stand.
Will the Houthis close the Bab el-Mandeb?
The Houthis, Iran’s ally in Yemen, could move to cut off the Bab el-Mandeb, another key shipping route that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, if fighting resumes between the United States and Iran. Both the Houthis and Iran have pointed to the closure of the Bab el-Mandeb as a possible retaliatory measure, which would add to the already significant stress on the global economy brought on by the Hormuz situation.
This post is part of FP’s ongoing coverage. Read more here.
