Timing matters when it comes to airfare.
We discussed that just a little over a week ago in an article about how buying trends from 2021 through 2025 could serve as a road map for booking travel in 2026.
But that was before the war with Iran started—and before the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that 20% of the world’s oil tankers must traverse to leave the Persian Gulf, effectively shut down to traffic.
As I write this, gasoline costs have already climbed 20% since the day before the first attack on Iran. Diesel is up 28%, and the cost of a barrel of crude has toggled between $82 and $120.
“If this disruption continues, it’s going to put upward pressure on fuel prices, and fuel is one of the biggest costs for the airlines,” Jesse Neugarten, founder and CEO of Dollar Flight Club, told me. “So if oil stays elevated going into summer, we can expect airfares to increase over time. It’s going to be more and more important to plan ahead, book early, and just be smart with how you’re thinking about travel if you want to get the best deals, because there’s going to be less of them.”
Just how much airfares will go up will really depend on what type of route you are booking.
“Long-haul international flights tend to be the most sensitive to fuel costs because they make up a bigger share of the operating costs on those,” says Neugarten. “Domestic routes will be a little more insulated. If you’re going to Europe this summer or [taking another extended flight] like that, I think you need to book, like, tomorrow.”
I asked Neugarten if he could see prices dropping if the war tamps down demand for flights. He didn’t think that outcome was very likely.
“Generally, the airlines are very quick to switch out aircrafts when they see a drop in demand,” says Neugarten. “What you could see instead of the big, wide-body jets flying from New York to L.A., you’re going to see single-aisle, smaller jets. They’ll just shift the planes they’re flying.”
Given the amount of volatility in the Middle East, Neugarten recommends booking with some precautions in place for your own protection. Here’s what he recommends.
Use points and miles.
Airfare bought with credit card reward points and frequent flyer miles will likely be fully refundable in case your plans change or the price drops.
Monitor airfares.
If you book with American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Alaska Airlines, JetBlue, United Airlines, or Southwest Airlines and the price goes dramatically lower, you can contact the carrier and demand a credit for the difference in price.
“Just call them on the phone and have them look up the fare,” Neugarten advises. “If it’s lower you should be able to get a credit”.
Dollar Flight Club thinks you should sign up for its price alerts, too.
No surprise there. Argues Neugarten: “Our alerts are even more valuable now in this type of environment just because fares change quickly and they could become more volatile. So it’s important to know when a good deal is a good deal and when prices drop.”
We’ll note here that NerdWallet already is showing airfares on the rise. Comparing prices for flights in February 2025 with February 2026, the personal finance company’s data showed an uptick of 7%. The increase from January to February of this year was 3%.
This is all a long way of saying: Ignore our earlier advice, which was based on trends in recent years rather than current global conditions, and book your flights ASAP. It seems clear that will be the best way to save money, and the downside is minimal.
