There was a lot of good news for Democratic candidates in this week’s fund-raising filings.
You can see the Democrats’ windfall in the graphic at the top of this page.
Analyses by Politico and Punchbowl News show that lots of Democratic House candidates are handily out-raising their opponents, too.
It would be easy to look at these Democratic candidates’ whopping cash advantage over their opponents and think they’re sitting pretty, flush with money and confident that they’ll swamp Republicans with paid advertising and other costly forms of campaigning in the midterm homestretch.
But candidate fund-raising is only part of the story — and the real race for cash is a lot tighter than it might seem. To explain more, I asked my colleague Teddy Schleifer, who was up well past midnight on Wednesday combing through fund-raising filings, to pull a few numbers.
Republicans, he told me, have two major advantages, both of which have to do with their spending from outside groups. “One is that their super PACs are better funded than those of the Democrats,” he said. “The second is that their national party committees are, as well, and the recent Supreme Court decision is going to make it a lot easier for candidates to tap into that cash.”
Let’s go to the numbers.
The super PACs
Republicans have $380 million in the two main party super PACs they’ll use for Senate and House races. Democrats have at least $193 million in theirs. (Their House super PAC has not yet reported its June fund-raising.)
The parties
The Republican National Committee has $125 million in the bank. The Democratic National Committee, which has been rived by infighting and other problems, is more than $3 million in debt. That’s right — it has less than $0.
That’s especially alarming for Democrats because a recent Supreme Court ruling has lifted lots of previous restrictions on how party money is spent. “That means the parties’ cash matters more than it did before,” Teddy said — and Democrats don’t have it.
The MAGA money
Here’s another important number: $382 million, which is the amount of money in President Trump’s super PAC, MAGA Inc. It has continued to raise enormous sums in Trump’s second term, in part from wealthy donors and corporations looking to curry favor with his administration.
“Republican outside groups are definitely advantaged by being in power,” Teddy said.
There is no Democratic equivalent to MAGA Inc. — and Republicans haven’t really started spending this money yet.
This, Teddy says, has “particularly freaked out Democrats because they know to expect it somewhere at some point, but they don’t know when and where.”
What it all means
Democrats would seem to have a lot going for them this cycle. Trump is unpopular, and he’s historically been a huge motivator for their voters. That’s helped Democrats attract small-dollar donations — but it hasn’t translated to an overall fund-raising advantage because Republicans are doing so well with big donors and corporations.
There’s a lot of money washing around this election. But it’s in different buckets — and the rules about how to use it are changing in real time. That makes it difficult to say who’s really ahead.
“I’d have said I’d rather be a really well-funded Democrat a month ago,” Teddy said, “but now I don’t know given the Supreme Court decision and how the R.N.C. takes advantage of it.”
Maine readers: We want to hear from you!
Maine Democrats will pick a replacement for Graham Platner next Saturday. If you live in Maine, I’d love to know what you think about the race. Are you planning to participate in this weekend’s county meetings? Who do you want to emerge victorious, and why? What do you make of the process?
Email me at onpolitics@nytimes.com. Please include your name, your hometown and let me know if I have permission to print your comments.
quote of the day
“Forgive me. A week ago I was on vacation.”
That was Shenna Bellows, the Maine secretary of state and a Democratic candidate to replace Platner in the state’s Senate race.
She made the remark at a debate last night in Portland, where a moderator clarified a criticism Bellows made about whether Senator Susan Collins, the Republican incumbent, had tried to rein in President Trump from military action in Venezuela.
My colleagues Benjamin Oreskes and Tim Balk have more on the debate, which showed Democrats’ tough task in quickly finding a nominee to pose a strong challenge to Collins.
Is South Carolina’s new senator here to stay?
President Trump has a new message for Senator Lindsey Graham’s sister, who has filled his seat after his unexpected death: “RUN, DARLINE, RUN!”
Senator Darline Graham, who was sworn in this week, was not initially expected to seek a full term, with a crowded field of Republicans vying for the newly open seat.
But now she has the president’s endorsement, which he offered in a post on Truth Social this afternoon. That will no doubt raise questions about whether Darline Graham, who has never been elected to serve in public office, could end up as a South Carolina senator long-term.
Senate Watch
Israel politics dominate a hostile Senate primary
Pro-Israel Democrats have not had much success in high-profile primary races this year. But in Michigan, Representative Haley Stevens is trying to reverse that trend.
Backed by tens of millions of dollars from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s main super PAC, she is aiming to overcome Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive who has railed against U.S. military support for Israel.
My colleague Reid Epstein has more on Stevens’s challenge in a race that has been nasty at times. Today, El-Sayed took the notable step of asking his supporters to stop making fun of Stevens online, writing: “It’s unkind and unhelpful. If you support me, please stop.”
ONE LAST THING
The rise of ‘Blue MAGA’ as an insult
That’s the derisive term that some young progressives on social media are using for older liberals who side with the establishment, my colleague Alexander Nazaryan writes.
The logic is that older liberals who fail to grasp the urgency of the moment are nearly as dangerous as President Trump and his supporters.
For those branded with the “Blue MAGA” accusation, it feels as bad as being called a Karen.
And some moderates, of course, reject the “Blue MAGA” charge. Jon Cowan, a founder of the think tank Third Way, said that these progressives “have absolutely no clue how arrogant and condescending they sound.”
Theodore Schleifer and Taylor Robinson contributed reporting.
