The nation’s redistricting war has escalated at a dizzying rate over the last few weeks, potentially becoming a significant factor in this year’s midterm elections.
Two court rulings have given Republicans a chance to build a structural edge on the national House map before November.
First, the Supreme Court issued a landmark ruling late last month that further weakened the Voting Rights Act, prompting a scramble in Republican-led states to redraw their maps. Then the Virginia Supreme Court struck down a newly gerrymandered map in that state, erasing a potential Democratic pickup of several seats. (On Monday, Democratic leaders in Virginia asked the U.S. Supreme Court to restore the map.)
Crucially, Republicans still have some room to maneuver and eke out a few more seats in the months before the midterms, while Democrats appear to have run out of time, stymied by both courts and their own policies and politics in blue states.
It’s a lot, and it’s confusing. So let’s take a step back.
Why are Republicans winning the map-drawing battle?
They simply have more opportunities to draw House maps that favor them, at least for this year’s elections.
That is mostly because of two important criteria in redistricting: whether a party has full control of the governor’s office in a state and both chambers of its legislature — known as a trifecta — and whether the state has policies and laws that permit partisan redistricting.
Republicans have 23 trifectas across the country, compared with just 16 for Democrats. And most G.O.P.-controlled states have kept the map-drawing process in control of their state legislatures, which has given Republican lawmakers the power to redraw congressional districts. These maps often need to be signed into law by the governor.
Some Democratic-leaning states, by contrast, have adopted independent commissions to draw their congressional maps in an effort to make the redistricting process less political.
Those commissions have made it more complicated for Democrats to fight back in the current era of zero-sum map battles. That’s why the Democrats in California and Virginia who wanted to redraw their maps had to hold statewide referendum elections to get permission to change their processes.
How have Republicans capitalized recently?
Everything on redistricting has gone their way in the last two weeks, and they’ve moved quickly to take advantage. Here’s one example:
After the Supreme Court decision that dealt a blow to the Voting Rights Act, Republicans in Tennessee carried out a series of rapid-fire steps in a matter of days. They announced their plan to draw a new map, introduced the new boundaries that eliminated the lone Democratic district in the state, passed the map and had their governor sign it into law. Republicans in states including Alabama and Louisiana are trying to take advantage in similar ways.
Democrats in Virginia had a far more frustrating chain of events. They needed to amend their State Constitution to remove Virginia’s independent redistricting commission, which required the legislature to pass a proposal in two separate years and then have voters approve the changes through a referendum vote. Voters approved a new map in April — but last week, the Virginia Supreme Court struck it down, taking issue with how Democrats carried out the process.
So in a short span of time, Republicans have notched some significant victories and seem on track for more gains, while Democrats were dealt a major defeat.
Where does the U.S. Supreme Court fit in?
The court’s ruling on the Voting Rights Act has upended how both parties approach the House map, both this year and in the future.
The decision struck down Louisiana’s House map, ruling that boundaries drawn to create a majority-Black district under the Voting Rights Act amounted to an illegal racial gerrymander. The ruling appeared to undermine the legal standing of majority-minority districts, which have long existed under the Voting Rights Act and are meant to protect the ability of voters of color to elect the candidates of their choice. Many of those seats in the South are now held by Black Democrats.
Essentially, the court’s conservative majority found that the Voting Rights Act prevents lawmakers from drawing maps that limit the power of minority voters only when it can be proven that they did so intentionally.
This newly high legal bar set off a scramble among Southern states to dismantle majority-minority districts and give Republicans extra seats.
Are there any rules governing redistricting anymore?
At the federal level, there are not many.
In 2019, the Supreme Court ruled that federal courts could not be the arbiters of partisan gerrymandering claims.
And after the court’s recent decision on racial gerrymandering, the main laws governing how congressional maps are drawn will now vary state to state.
Could Republicans’ new map edge help them keep the House?
Maybe, but the party still faces major headwinds.
Republicans’ recent redistricting victories mean that they could gain anywhere from six to 12 new G.O.P.-leaning districts before the midterms.
But the party continues to confront a bleak political environment, driven largely by Mr. Trump’s poor approval ratings, the unpopular war with Iran and rising energy prices.
