A referendum that just passed in Virginia has captivated the political world, and it could have major implications for determining control of Congress.
Let’s break it down.
What happened?
Last night, Virginia voters approved a referendum to redraw the state’s congressional map, embracing a Democratic-designed one that is “as extreme a political gerrymander as exists in the United States,” as my colleague Reid Epstein put it.
The new map could allow Democrats to flip as many as four House seats held by Republicans in the midterm elections this fall. That’s a meaningful number given Republicans’ razor-thin control of the majority at the moment.
Democrats also cast the measure as an opportunity for voters to voice opposition to President Trump, Reid wrote. And the outcome is the latest sign of anti-Trump energy in a crucial midterm year.
Not so long ago, as my colleague Nick Corasaniti told On Politics readers on Monday, Democrats despised gerrymandering. But after Trump and Republicans started the fight with their redistricting efforts in Texas last year, Democrats are in a radically different mind set.
We saw that play out in California last year, when voters agreed to aggressively redraw the state’s congressional district lines, an effort championed by Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat and potential presidential candidate. And that attitude was evident in Virginia last night.
“We cannot bring a stick to a knife fight,” Kelly Hall, the executive director of the Fairness Project, which spent more than $12 million backing the redistricting referendum, told my colleague Kellen Browning.
What’s next?
Right now, Nick wrote, the national redistricting war is roughly a draw, with Democrats enjoying a small advantage. But Republicans could regain a slight edge if Florida chooses to redistrict.
Then there is the big question of whether the Supreme Court strikes down part of the Voting Rights Act that effectively bans racial gerrymandering. “If that happens,” Nick noted, “several Republican states, largely in the South, will have the opportunity to push through new maps ahead of the midterms.”
To learn more about what happened last night and what happens next, I caught up with Reid, one of my colleagues closely covering the vote. Below are excerpts from our conversation.
Reid, thanks for joining. For people who were not closely following the ins and outs of the referendum, what is the most important thing to understand about the Virginia vote and what it means for the midterms?
Hi Katie! Who was not following our stories about the Virginia referendum? Name names! The biggest thing to know is that Democrats are likely to pick up four House seats from the new map voters approved. That puts the party a little bit closer to winning a majority, though much of that will depend on the national mood come November.
What are the chances that the results from last night end up being decisive in the midterms? Or is the map too fluid to say?
If the election were held today, Democrats would probably flip enough House seats that Virginia would not be decisive on its own. But it is a long way to November, and money saved by having fewer competitive districts in Virginia can be allocated to other states where the party is trying to oust Republicans.
What’s next in the redistricting wars?
What’s a partisan fight without Florida? Next Tuesday, state legislators there are set to convene in Tallahassee to take up a proposed new map from Gov. Ron DeSantis. But he has not told anyone yet what the new map will look like, and it remains possible he does not push a new map at all — though there will be a lot of pressure on him to act.
Anything else you think our readers need to understand on this subject?
We all used to have to pay attention to redistricting once every 10 years. Now it is all the time!
quote of the day
“I’m sorry for misleading people.”
That was Tucker Carlson, the right-wing commentator, expressing remorse for his role in helping Trump return to the White House. Carlson has broken sharply with the president over the war with Iran, but he acknowledged that his support of Trump’s 2024 campaign was part of the “reason this is happening right now.”
number of the day
$600 million
That’s the staggering advantage that the Republican Party’s main political committees and allied groups have built over their Democratic counterparts, my colleague Theodore Schleifer writes.
So even though individual Democratic candidates in midterm races are raising more money, Republican groups may be able to level the playing field — or even give the G.O.P. a financial edge.
ONE LAST THING
California holds a first post-Swalwell debate
Tonight is the first televised debate in California’s wild race for governor since Eric Swalwell dropped out of the running last week.
My colleague Laurel Rosenhall has a preview of the debate, which starts at 7 p.m. Pacific time.
Taylor Robinson contributed reporting.
