LONDON — There is a credible debate over whether England can win the World Cup with Harry Kane. Tuesday’s 1-0 home defeat to Japan strongly suggests that without him, they have no chance.
Kane’s absence from the starting lineup was the consequence of a minor injury sustained in England’s final training session yesterday. The 32-year-old’s fitness record is generally excellent, but it is nevertheless the sort of situation that could arise in what England will be hopeful is a seven-game run at this summer’s tournament.
Before Monday’s session began, manager Thomas Tuchel addressed the media and was asked if he had a clear idea of what to do should Kane not be available, having experimented with Dominic Solanke and Dominic Calvert-Lewin during Friday’s 1-1 draw against Uruguay.
He paused, laughed, and said: “Good question… you’ve seen my answer already that I’m maybe not close. I have some ideas, but I will not make them public.”
England’s display against Japan was equally unconvincing. Instead of continuing with Solanke or Calvert-Lewin, he opted to play Phil Foden as a false nine with Cole Palmer operating in a central position and Morgan Rogers pushed out towards the right flank with Anthony Gordon on the other in a narrow shape.
Palmer’s most memorable contribution was to give the ball away for what proved to be the match-winning goal, a slick move started and finished by Kaoru Mitoma as Japan became the first Asian nation ever to beat England.
Foden’s palpable loss of confidence and form continued. England had 19 shots, but none of them came from Foden, who was replaced on the hour mark after only 22 touches. England’s goalkeeper Jordan Pickford registered 39.
Tuchel’s reshuffle did little to shake England from its slumber. Solanke led the line, Rogers shifted to a No. 10 with Jarrod Bowen on to play on the right. Marcus Rashford brought about a slight improvement when introduced for Gordon with 19 minutes left, but England’s late rally, a generous term for the modicum of pressure they applied, came through set-pieces as Harry Maguire and Dan Burn caused problems.
Japan’s failure to clear one such corner gave Lewis Hall a chance to test Zion Suzuki, but the visitors’ goalkeeper saved smartly low to his right.
That was one of England’s four shots on target on a night in which Ben White was booed before kickoff and the whole team was booed at full time by those still in the ground. The vast majority of the 79,233 crowd had already left long before the end to navigate their way home.
Any side would miss Kane. He is arguably the best striker in world football at present — 53 goals in 45 appearances for Bayern Munich and England this season — and as captain, his presence off the field is as important on it in setting the standards England hope to reach.
Since the start of the 2018 World Cup — where Kane would go on to win the Golden Boot — England have a 65% win record from 88 games when he started. That figure drops to 57% from 14 without him, but his absence feels far greater than those raw numbers suggest.
“In the absence of Harry Kane, we don’t have the same threat,” said Tuchel. “Bayern Munich in the absence of Harry Kane has not the same threat. No team in the world has the same threat, it is just normal.
“If top teams and nations rely on top players, that’s just absolutely normal. On top of that, Harry dropped out, so we lost not only him as a player but also him as a personality. It’s always a bit disruptive if the captain leaves the last training after 15 minutes and is out of the squad.
“We can win games without Harry, we will win games without Harry, we have won without Harry, but it is easier to win matches with Harry.”
And yet, the need for a viable alternative is not just due to injury. Kane often labored as England reached the final of Euro 2024 and the extreme heat conditions that await in the United States this summer will likely place a greater emphasis on squad depth and rotation.
Ollie Watkins was left out of this squad because Tuchel feels sufficiently aware of what the Aston Villa forward can give him. Solanke, Calvert-Lewin and Foden all failed to seize the opportunity presented to them in this international break.
Watkins, therefore, surely has a strong case to make the final 26-man squad, although the clamor in certain quarters for Brighton’s veteran forward Danny Welbeck may grow if he continues to deliver in the Premier League — the 35-year-old is the highest-scoring Englishman in the division.
Tuchel was, of course, right to experiment here. The spectacle served up may have been underwhelming, but the bigger picture is more important. That bigger picture does have blemishes, however, not least England’s record against elite sides, which has long been a cause for concern, even when reaching the final of the past two European Championships.
England qualified for the World Cup with a flawless qualifying campaign, winning all eight games without conceding a goal. But they have now played three top-20 ranked nations under Tuchel: Senegal, Uruguay and Japan. Their record is one draw and two defeats.
Those results can be explained away by experimentation. Jude Bellingham, Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka will all return. But the point of that experimentation is to find solutions and it appears Tuchel is no closer to knowing how to cope without Kane as the World Cup appears ever closer on the horizon.
