UConn heads into the 2026 women’s NCAA tournament as the No. 1 overall seed. But were the Huskies the most popular pick to win the national championship among ESPN’s college basketball analysts?
Which team from each region will advance to Phoenix and the Final Four? And who will win the NCAA title? Before the first round tips off Friday (11:30 a.m. ET, ESPN2), our experts made their predictions.
The Huskies, who are six wins away from their 13th NCAA title and seventh perfect season, were a popular vote: UConn was selected as the Fort Worth 1 Region champion by all 22 voters. No other team was a unanimous Final Four pick, but the 1-seeds received a clear majority. South Carolina received 21 votes, Texas had 19 and UCLA 15.
While half of the voters picked all four No. 1 seeds to advance to the national semifinals, LSU, Duke, Michigan, Louisville and TCU also received at least one vote to reach Phoenix.
UConn was picked to win the national title on 13 ballots. Fellow 1-seeds UCLA (four), Texas (four) and South Carolina (one) were the only teams picked to win the championship.
Let’s run through the expert picks — but first, let’s break down the bracket a bit.
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Experts’ picks
Which is the toughest region?
Charlie Creme: With LSU, the top No. 2 seed, and Duke, the best of the No. 3 seeds, together with UCLA, the No. 2 overall seed, simple math says it’s Sacramento 2. But as loaded as this region is, it doesn’t make the Bruins’ path any more difficult. They can play either the Tigers or Blue Devils, not both. If seeds hold through the first two rounds, LSU and Duke would play each other before reaching UCLA.
Ole Miss is the team that could be a speed bump to the Bruins’ road to the Final Four. The No. 5 seed Rebels did stumble with four losses to end the regular season, but they were also good enough to beat Vanderbilt twice, Oklahoma and Notre Dame, and to play Texas to within three points in Austin.
Michael Voepel: Agreed that Sacramento 2 looks loaded. But Fort Worth 3 could be challenging, as well. No. 1 seed Texas will be close to home and riding its SEC tournament championship. But No. 4 seed West Virginia won the Big 12 tournament and No. 3 seed Louisville probably should have won the ACC tournament, but fell in overtime to Duke. Michigan didn’t play well in the Big Ten tournament semifinals with a 59-42 loss to Iowa, which had the Wolverines’ number this season. But Michigan is a dangerous team, so if seeds hold, Fort Worth 3 could be compelling.
Which non-No. 1 seed has the best chance to win it all?
Voepel: LSU’s five losses were to SEC teams, including twice to South Carolina. What the Tigers learned from those defeats could help them get to the Elite Eight for the fourth year in a row. If seeds hold, they then would have to beat UCLA, Texas and UConn or South Carolina for the championship. That sounds wildly hard. So why pick them to potentially do it? Guard play, led by Flau’jae Johnson, Mikaylah Williams and MiLaysia Fulwiley. The Tigers have a lot of size, quickness and depth on the perimeter, and they have the highest scoring average (94.5 PPG) in Division I. Admittedly, they piled up a lot of points against inferior nonconference foes. But their SEC scoring average was still 82.6, second in the SEC to Vanderbilt. It will take a run from a team with lethal offensive potential to keep one of the No. 1s from taking the championship. LSU could be that team.
Creme: It’s about the vulnerability of the No. 1 seed, so I’m going with No. 3 seed Louisville for a different reason. The No. 1 seed Texas Longhorns would surprise no one by winning the national championship. They also are the one top-flight program that doesn’t embrace 3-point shooting. Texas is last in the country in 3-point rate and 344th in attempts from beyond the arc. In a close game, that opens the door for an underdog. The Cardinals with their balance — seven players averaging between 8.3 and 11.4 points per game — and ability to defend on a level that is at least comparable to the outstanding defense of Texas could give them a chance in a potential Elite Eight meeting. Jeff Walz is another outstanding NCAA tournament coach, who has taken four teams to the Final Four and made five straight Elite Eights from 2018 to 2023 (no tournament in 2020). Of course, that assumes Louisville even survives a possible regional semifinal with No. 2 seed Michigan, another team that could give Texas some trouble. The Wolverines lost to both UConn and UCLA by just three points.
What early-round matchup are you most looking forward to?
Voepel: On opening day of the season, Nov. 4, NC State beat Tennessee 80-77 in Greensboro, North Carolina. Both teams were ranked in the AP top 10 then. Friday, they meet unranked in Ann Arbor, Michigan, as the Nos. 7 and 10 seeds in the Fort Worth 3 Regional.
NC State went 20-10 and finished fourth in the ACC despite the loss of three senior starters from 2024-25. Tennessee also lost three starters, but has had a tougher time of it. The Lady Vols are 16-13, finished in a four-way tie for sixth in the SEC at 8-8, and enter the NCAA tournament on a seven-game losing streak. Tennessee went from a 6-0 start in SEC play to losing 10 of its last 12. Included in that stretch was a 30-point nonconference loss to UConn and 43-point loss to South Carolina, the worst defeat in Tennessee history.
Will Tennessee end its losing streak and have at least some positive momentum to take from the tournament? Or will the season end in free fall? It will be an interesting rematch of two teams that couldn’t have guessed back in November that they would be meeting in the NCAA first round.
Creme: The winner will have to face UConn, so I am going to enjoy Iowa State and Syracuse while I can. The matchup between the two should be fun. It would be better if Orange senior guard Dominique Darius could play, but an injury to her left hand suffered in the ACC tournament will keep her out. Darius matching up with Iowa State point guard Jada Williams would have been intriguing, but the one-on-one collision that makes this game so appealing is in the post. Iowa State’ Audi Crooks, the nation’s second-leading scorer, going up against ACC freshman of the year Uche Izoje. At 6-3, Izoje has the length to cause Crooks some problems, and she scores 15.5 points per game herself. The Cyclones’ Addy Brown and Syracuse’s Laila Phelia is another individual battle that could decide the game.
