The Kentucky Derby doesn’t always provide a photo finish, but the last several runnings have given fans close, competitive races that came down to the wire. Entering the 2026 Kentucky Derby, each of the last seven editions have seen a margin of victory of less than two lengths. Each of those seven were also not won by the favorite, which could affect your Kentucky Derby 2026 predictions. Arkansas Derby winner Renegade is the 4-1 favorite for The Run for the Roses, which takes place at 6:57 p.m. ET on Saturday. Bet the Kentucky Derby with the exclusive TwinSpires offer code CBSSPORTS to receive up to $400 in bonus bets here, double what’s available to the general public:
His half-sibling, Commandment, is priced at 6-1, as is fellow Brad Cox-trained horse Further Ado. Junior Alvarado rode Sovereignty to victory at last year’s Derby, and he’ll be aboard Chief Wallabee this year, with the latter at 8-1 in the latest 2026 Kentucky Derby odds. Before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions and best bets from SportsLine’s elite horse racing expert Gene Menez.
A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI’s handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.
In 2015, while writing for Sports on Earth, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta (American Pharoah, Firing Line, Dortmund and Frosted), which paid $1,268.20 for $2. Then in 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet. In 2024, Menez gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby. In last year’s Kentucky Derby, he hammered the exacta and trifecta for a $1,045 payout. Anyone who has followed his horse racing betting advice could be way up.
Now, Menez has handicapped the 2026 Kentucky Derby field and revealed his picks. Go here to see them. Sign up for FanDuel Racing, where new users get $25 in bonuses with a $5 bet:
Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Menez’s surprising 2026 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading the favorite, Renegade. Renegade won the 2026 Arkansas Derby on March 28 at Oaklawn Park, covering 1 1/8 miles in 1:49.7, and before that won the 2026 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs. If we take a closer look at the 2026 Kentucky Derby odds and his full resumé, the red flags start to pile up. Before those two wins, Renegade had finished second twice, including a runner-up effort in the 2025 Remsen at Aqueduct in December. He is a late-running closer, something tough to do in the chaotic, 20-horse Kentucky Derby 2026 field.
Veteran Todd A. Pletcher trains Renegade for the Kentucky Derby 2026, but the 58-year-old Hall of Fame conditioner has not had a Derby winner since 2017. Adding to the concern is the No. 1 post, a spot that has not produced a Derby winner since Ferdinand in 1986. “As a late-running closer, he will be at the mercy of a fair pace and a clean trip and is in danger of losing massive ground if he tries to pass horses on the outside on the far turn,” Menez said of the 2026 Kentucky Derby favorite. See who to back at SportsLine.
Another stunner: Menez is high on Chief Wallabee, even though he’s not one of the top-three favorites at 8-1. Last year saw Sovereignty win the Derby with Bill Mott as his trainer and Junior Alvarado as his jockey. That duo is back again, this time with Chief Wallabee, who did not race as a 2-year-old. However, that also means he has less tread on his legs than the rest of the field.
Chief Wallabee also has the pedigree you want to see when making horse racing bets as he was sired by Constitution, who won multiple G1 races. Chief Wallabee has finished in the money in all three career starts, and Menez doesn’t think the horse’s inexperience should deter backing him for the Derby. “Even though Chief Wallabee is looking to become just the third Kentucky Derby winner since 1882 to win the Kentucky Derby without having raced at age 2, I think Mott has a big shot to return to the winner’s circle,” Menez told SportsLine. See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks at TwinSpires here with the offer code CBSSPORTS:
How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Menez’s top pick is a horse who was “the big winner of the post draw.” He also is high on a double-digit longshot who is the “best value in the race.” Menez is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2026 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2026, and which longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2026 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Menez’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who had a $1,045 payout at last year’s race.
