Arsenal face Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League final and by ending their wait for the Premier League title, the Gunners have removed the fear, tension and doubt that has haunted previous campaigns, writes betting guru Lewis Jones. He has three tips for the big one…..
Paris Saint-Germain vs Arsenal, Champions League final, Saturday 5pm
Arsenal winning the Premier League is a real gamechanger for me when it comes to this game from a betting perspective.
Arsenal are 11/10 with Sky Bet to win Saturday’s final – whether in 90 minutes, after extra-time or on penalties – and complete the double. PSG are 8/11 favourites to lift the trophy for the second time in a row.
I think those odds should be closer together as the psychology of this Champions League final feels massively underrated in the betting. I was expecting the market to move more favourably towards Arsenal since they won the Premier League – but it’s not shifted at all.
Mikel Arteta has overcome a huge psychological barrier by winning the Premier League
Arsenal have carried the burden of being nearly-men. But winning the Premier League changes absolutely everything.
That monkey is off their back now. The emotional release of finally getting over the line matters. You could see it in the celebrations – this could now be a squad suddenly liberated from the fear of failure.
This final is now framed as an opportunity rather than an obligation.
Winning the Champions League and completing the double would elevate this season into legendary territory – but if they fall short, they are still Premier League champions.
History has already been written. This team has gone down in history whatever happens here.
Arsenal are chasing a bonus prize. That makes Arsenal dangerous.
And just even from a tactical set-up I think Arsenal are very well equipped to stop PSG from having the space and territory to seriously hurt them. Mikel Arteta will make this ugly and produce a game where whoever defends the best, wins.
The Gunners have kept nine clean sheets in their last 14 Champions League games – the axis of David Raya, William Saliba and Gabriel in terms of doing their own job is just as world-class as the PSG front three of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Ousmane Dembele and Desire Doue.
Arsenal have yet to concede from open play in the knockout stages – and three of the four goals they conceded in the league phase came in the final two games when qualification was all-but confirmed and they heavily rotated.
This is a defence that can lead them to glory.
JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Arsenal to win the Champions League (11/10 with Sky Bet)
Top of the props?
Matches of this enormity are full of betting opportunities when it comes to the prop markets.
An angle I always like to focus on in finals is fouls. Increased jeopardy, extra motivation and the good chance that a game of this magnitude becomes very scrappy does tend to see higher foul averages than what the algorithms that price up these markets come up with.
The last 30 Europa League and Champions League finals are averaging 28.5 fouls per 90.
For context, this season the average Premier League game has seen 21.5 fouls per 90. And the Champions League has seen 22.5 fouls per game.
So from a basic drawdown of the data over a pretty good sample size you can probably add six fouls to the expectant averages for a major European final.
This means there is great opportunity here to back a player in the player fouls markets.
The best bet is Bukayo Saka to make two or more fouls at 11/10 with Sky Bet.
As with all bets in the player fouls market, match-up is absolutely key and Saka’s battle with Nuno Mendes is sure to be a ‘fouly’ one.
Mendes is drawing 1.7 fouls per 90 this season and doesn’t need much invitation to go down under minimal contact. Saka, a hefty foul drawer himself, can be quite petulant with his tackling especially in big games and is working at a 1.4 fouls per 90 strike-rate across his last 20 games.
He committed two or more fouls in his last two starts against Burnley and West Ham – and the cherry on the top is that Saka made two fouls in both the two knockout matches with PSG last season when playing against Mendes.
JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Bukayo Saka to make two or more fouls (11/10 with Sky Bet)
Bukayo Saka is 11/10 to make 2+ fouls with Sky Bet
The long shot…
Set-pieces are another area where Arsenal have the upper hand on PSG.
The Gunners have scored the most set-piece goals (24) and goals from corners (18) in the Premier League.
If you go back to the second leg meeting between these two last season, Arsenal created 0.77 expected goals from set-pieces in Paris. Long throws were raining in – it was a very set-piece heavy strategy. Same again is expected.
So all the usual tactics for a set-piece based bet are on the table here with Gabriel the obvious starting point. However, odds of 15/2 with Sky Bet for him to score are pretty skinny. We can get greedier than that.
If he is going to score the chances of it coming from a corner are obviously very likely, so the way to play the Gabriel angle is to play two bets through the BuildABet function.
Gabriel to score and Declan Rice to assist – that’s 25/1.
And Gabriel to score and Saka to assist – also 25/1.
Gabriel is 25/1 to score via an assist from either Declan Rice or Saka
In the last two seasons, this exact type of bet has copped five times across the Premier League and Champions League.
And the Rice to Gabriel or Saka to Gabriel combo for chances created has happened 39 times in the last two seasons.
Of course, we have the added bonus of two bets being able to land at separate times in the match, too – so, if Gabriel scores then Saka or Rice assist another Arsenal goal then the bets will still land that way.
