This one certainly should live up to the billing.
Spain vs Argentina, World Cup final, Sunday 8pm
The battle in the Big Apple sees Spain, 5/4 pre-tournament favourites with Sky Bet, take on 13/5 defending champions Argentina.
Spain are odds-on at 4/6 to lift the World Cup for the second time with Argentina 5/4 to land back-to-back world titles.
This is an intriguing clash of styles. Spain’s blend of patience, possession and precision is perfectly suited to knockout football. As France found out in the semi-finals.
Meanwhile, Argentina are like a cockroach you can’t kill. Their amazing powers of recovery make them a dangerous opponent but this could just be one game too far for them at this tournament.
It’s been an emotional and physical ride, one which could take its toll up against the possession-obsessed Spanish. Remember, Argentina went to extra-time vs Cape Verde and Switzerland while late salvos against Egypt and England have also been draining ways to win football matches.
Compare that to Spain, who have won in 90 minutes in all four knockout matches and barely even celebrated victories in the aftermath. It’s been very professional.
Argentina may be on the verge of completely blowing a gasket in terms of energy levels.
Meanwhile, Spain have also had the extra-day rest which past trends show is crucial coming into a match like this. Since Euro 2004, 15 of 20 finals across men’s and women’s major tournament finals have been won by the team who have had the extra day rest.
Spain aren’t the type to go and thrash a team but if Argentina were to fall behind early I think they could fall apart based on this fatigue factor. This make-up of game reminds me of Inter Milan vs PSG in the Champions League final where PSG were the fresher, more emotionally stable team and wiped the floor with the Italians.
If Spain win, the chances of them winning by a big scoreline are more likely than the odds suggest based on the Argentina tiredness factor.
The way to back them in this manner is to back Spain on the -1 Handicap at 100/30 with Sky Bet. This means any win by two or more goals for Spain will come home a winner.
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Spain or Argentina have the chance to be presented with World Cup rings on Sunday.
JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Spain -1 Handicap vs Argentina (100/30 with Sky Bet)
Argentina caught the eye with their constant fouling especially in the first half against England. And this game should go down a similar route with Argentina likely to try and spoil the game instead of allowing Spain to settle.
But this could be even more of a foul frenzy both ways as Spain are very adept at making fouls and slowing a game down where necessary.
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Tom Brady asks Lionel Messi to reflect on viral Yamal photo.
Spain know how to play ugly when required.
Across their 14 games in major tournaments, they are averaging 12.5 fouls per 90, so their base foul ratio is high and when you throw the opposition into the mix this becomes a great betting angle I think.
Argentina’s opposition across their last 25 competitive games are averaging 14 fouls per 90. They know how to give it out – but they are also happy to take it.
Referee Slavco Vincic is a great referee for fouls, too. He has a high average for fouls awarded in the Champions League across the last five seasons – in fact, it’s the second highest ratio (23.6 per game) of any referee to have refereed more than 15 games.
So I think the expectation here in a game of this magnitude is for both teams to hit their average foul count. Through the BuildABet function, we can combine Spain to make 13 or more fouls with Argentina to make 13 or more fouls which conjures up a 11/10 shot to attack.
