Sen. John Cornyn defied expectations in the Texas GOP primary on Tuesday. National Republicans believe his unexpectedly strong showing may be enough for President Donald Trump to endorse the embattled incumbent.
Trump has privately intimated that he will soon get involved in the Texas Senate race after rebuffing endorsement pleas from both candidates for months, according to a GOP strategist close to the White House who was granted anonymity to speak freely. For months, party leaders worried that Trump would back state Attorney General Ken Paxton, a longtime ally of the president, especially if he dominated in Tuesday’s primary.
Then came the results that had Cornyn neck-and-neck with Paxton. With that outcome, the strategist said, it would be “very surprising” if Trump backed Paxton.
The stakes are high for Republicans, who fear control of the Senate is hanging in the balance. The GOP hoped to avoid state Rep. James Talarico clinching the Democratic nomination because they see him as able to draw away moderate Republican voters.
Republicans “should take him seriously,” said another close Trump administration ally, granted anonymity to be candid. Talarico is a “big reason for Trump to get in for Cornyn and end this thing,” the ally said, especially to free up massive amounts of money that could be spent instead on competitive Senate races in Michigan and Georgia.
National Republicans estimated they would have to spend $200 million to protect Cornyn in the runoff. But the GOP strategist shrugged off the price tag. “Look, it will probably cost some money,” the person said. “It’s just money, we have a lot of it.”
Tuesday’s results were the best-case scenario for establishment Republicans, who worried Cornyn would finish far enough behind Paxton that it would be a slog for him — and a tough sell for a president who hates to back losers.
The Texas GOP Senate primary has become a referendum on the future of the Republican Party, testing the strength of the conservative grassroots against the establishment wing. While the MAGA base kept the four-term incumbent — who nearly became Senate majority leader — from getting a majority of the primary vote, the results show the old Republican establishment isn’t quite dead yet.
Cornyn’s narrow lead over Paxton was powered by even performances across the state.
Even in the most heavily Republican counties where Paxton might have expected to benefit from a MAGA base, the incumbent senator largely held his own: Across more than 110 mostly rural counties that Trump won by at least 50 points in 2024 and were reporting complete results as of early Wednesday morning, Paxton built up only the narrowest of leads, 44 percent to just shy of 40 percent for Cornyn.
Meanwhile, Cornyn strengthened his advantage in the more traditional white-collar suburbs, leading by double digits in Travis and Dallas counties as results continued to come in early Wednesday morning.
The senator, speaking to reporters on Election Night in Austin, said Republican voters’ choice is “crystal clear.”
“I refuse to allow a flawed, self-centered, and shameless candidate like Ken Paxton risk everything we’ve worked so hard to build over these many years,” he said. “There is simply too much at stake.”
Republicans are well aware that overall control of the Senate may be at risk. Cornyn’s allies warn that scandal-plagued Paxton turns off general election voters, especially if Talarico is their opponent.
During Paxton’s decade as attorney general, he faced an impeachment by the GOP-led Texas state House, ethics complaints, a federal securities fraud investigation and a recent divorce complete with allegations of infidelity.
Now Paxton is facing another 12 weeks going up against the wrath — and war chest — of the Washington establishment.
“John Cornyn spent around $100 million trying to buy this seat,” Paxton told his supporters at a watch party after the race was called. “We spent around $5 million… We prove something they’ll never understand in Washington: Texas is not for sale.”
One question is which candidate the voters who backed Rep. Wesley Hunt, who finished a distant third place, will support now — or whether they turn out at all for the May runoff.
Lone Star Liberty, a pro-Paxton super PAC, in a memo circulated ahead of Tuesday’s election, shrugged off threats that Cornyn would succeed in the runoff by continuing to hammer the attorney general on his litany of scandals, arguing they had nothing new to offer.
“Cornyn’s talk of ‘unleashing’ new attacks’ in the runoff is bluster,” the memo states. “The truth is that from day one, his forces fired every bullet they had. There are no new attacks left — only more of the same, at ever-greater cost and with ever-diminishing returns.”
Senate Republican operatives – who had entered the night expecting the race to head to a runoff, but unsure of how Cornyn would track against Paxton – were exultant as the incumbent maintained a narrow lead well into the night.
A Republican working on Senate campaigns, granted anonymity to speak freely, said Cornyn “proved to be formidable” on Tuesday — bolstering the establishment GOP argument that he is “the most electable” as the party braces for a battle against Talarico.
Talarico’s lead “reaffirms the need to have Cornyn as the nominee. Can’t risk this to Paxton,” the GOP operative close to the White House said.
Yet some Republicans conceded Cornyn has a tricky path to navigate. He’ll have to square off again with the conservative primary voters who make up Paxton’s base.
“Runoffs are extremely unpredictable, and head-to-head it could be anyone’s ballgame,” said Republican strategist Jeff Burton.
Dasha Burns, Lisa Kashinsky, Alec Hernandez, Jessica Piper and Erin Doherty contributed reporting
