Deep-blue New York City is no one’s idea of a midterm battleground. But as primary season heats up, the Big Apple is about to play a big role in Democrats’ ongoing identity crisis.
New York has long figured in the party’s psyche. It is home to Representative Hakeem Jeffries and Senator Chuck Schumer, the House and Senate Democratic leaders, as well as Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Mayor Zohran Mamdani, whose upset victory last fall helped revive the socialist left.
Now, establishment and left-wing leaders are battling for supremacy in half a dozen House seats scattered across the city. With a Kennedy scion trying to revive Camelot and super PACs funded by rival A.I. behemoths in the mix, the drama sometimes feels big enough to fill a Broadway stage.
This evening, let’s walk through some of the most competitive contests, which will culminate in June primary elections.
A Kennedy takes a big swing in Manhattan.
Representative Jerrold Nadler’s decision to retire opened a seat in the heart of Manhattan for the first time in decades. In a district that is home to news media empires and Democratic megadonors, his successor can count on a national platform on Day 1.
What is notable is how differently the leading candidates, who generally agree on policy matters, propose to use that platform.
Jack Schlossberg, the grandson of John F. Kennedy, has a huge social media following and has held himself and his provocative online tactics up as an answer to Democrats’ messaging woes, especially with young voters. Micah Lasher, a West Side assemblyman, is a policy wonk in the Nadler mold positioning himself as an intellectual engine for how to enact progressive lawmaking.
Alex Bores, an East Side assemblyman who started his career at the data analytics firm Palantir, has centered his campaign on regulating A.I. (and has inspired millions of dollars in super PAC spending from industry players on both sides of the issue). And George T. Conway III, the ex-husband of President Trump’s 2016 campaign manager, has built his campaign around stopping one man: Trump.
A pro-Israel prosecutor is on the ropes.
In Lower Manhattan and brownstone Brooklyn, Representative Daniel Goldman, a two-term Democrat, is trying to fend off a formidable challenge from Brad Lander, a former citywide official and mayoral candidate running to his left.
Goldman, a liberal former federal prosecutor who helped lead the first impeachment of Trump, would normally be a shoo-in for re-election. But as his party and the district have become more hostile to Israel amid the war in Gaza, his long-term commitment to that nation has left him vulnerable.
There is also a more parochial problem. Goldman, a Levi Strauss heir, has already donated $1 million to his own campaign and has the party establishment behind him. But Lander has much deeper ties in the district from decades in local office, as well as the backing of the mayor, who is overwhelmingly popular there.
The Mamdani movement tries to grow its ranks.
Mamdani, a 34-year-old democratic socialist, upended New York’s politics last year. Now, he wants to use a vacant House seat in Brooklyn and Queens to show that his victory was not a one-off.
He is all-in for Claire Valdez, a state assemblywoman. If she wins, Valdez would probably be just the fourth democratic socialist in the House.
It is no small gamble. The district encompasses much of what has become known as the Commie Corridor, a far-left leaning area that includes gentrifying neighborhoods like Williamsburg, Bushwick and Long Island City.
But the district is also home to a large Latino and Asian population that elected Representative Nydia M. Velázquez, a Puerto Rican trailblazer, for decades. Velázquez, the Working Families Party and most big labor unions are behind Antonio Reynoso, the progressive Brooklyn borough president and a local son. Velázquez in particular is bristling at the mayor’s involvement, and has said that Valdez and her young supporters, many of them transplants, do not really understand the district.
Is there an anti-incumbent tide?
Three other races that for now appear less competitive could nevertheless test just how deep Democrats’ anti-incumbent sentiment runs in the Trump era.
Representatives Adriano Espaillat in Manhattan, Ritchie Torres in the Bronx and Grace Meng in Queens were each path-breakers when they first won office in majority-minority districts. Now they are facing spirited primary challengers who argue that they have become part of a complacent establishment in Washington.
quote of the day
“If you run as an independent, the odds get better.”
That was Representative Don Bacon of Nebraska, a moderate Republican whose retirement from Congress paved the way for one of the country’s most unusual midterm contests this year. Republicans and Democrats, my colleague Kellen Browning reports, are accusing each other of subterfuge in a race that includes a high-profile independent who is backed by the state Democratic Party.
Bacon’s comments underscore a stark reality of politics in much of the Great Plains, Kellen writes: The Democratic brand has become so toxic that independent candidates are often more viable rivals to Republicans.
redistricting
How Republicans gained a redistricting edge
The nation’s war over maps has ratcheted up quite a bit these past few weeks, with Republicans claiming an advantage in the seesawing fight. If you have questions, my colleague Nick Corasaniti has answers.
2028 watch
When Trump muses: JD or Marco?
Trump’s advisers say that this question, which the president asks every now and then, is simply for fun, and that 2028 is not at the top of his mind, my colleague Katie Rogers reports.
Even so, Katie adds, it would be hard for Trump to ignore that Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance, whom he refers to as “kids,” have taken on bigger profiles lately.
Their dueling appearances, and the viral chatter that follows, have generated new speculation about whether Rubio might eventually challenge Vance, who is widely expected to run, in a race for the Republican presidential nomination.
ONE LAST THING
Younger politicians’ biggest pitfall: old tweets
As a new generation of chronically online over-sharers runs for office, many find themselves tripped up by past statements. My colleague Kellen Browning breaks down what typically happens:
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First: Long-ago social media posts or video clips by political candidates get exposed online, prompting a backlash from rivals.
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Second: The candidates downplay the comments and distance themselves, often insisting their views have changed.
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Third: Voters and the media tire of the topic and move on. Or they don’t.
Taylor Robinson contributed reporting.
