Three major factors are likely to shape economic and geopolitical outcomes over the next several years: politically unconstrained AI development, a shift from the logic of globalization to zero-sum thinking, and heightened international tail risks. Much could go right, or at least as expected—until it doesn’t.
NEW YORK—It’s a fascinating moment for international politics and global markets. The world is in turmoil, primarily because the United States, still the dominant superpower, has become a fundamentally unreliable actor. President Donald Trump is actively pulling apart the international order that the US built and led over the past 80 years. Yet financial markets are riding high, not just in the US but also in East Asia, South America, and much of Europe. Are investors wrong, or is the picture more complex than this seeming contradiction suggests?
NEW YORK—It’s a fascinating moment for international politics and global markets. The world is in turmoil, primarily because the United States, still the dominant superpower, has become a fundamentally unreliable actor. President Donald Trump is actively pulling apart the international order that the US built and led over the past 80 years. Yet financial markets are riding high, not just in the US but also in East Asia, South America, and much of Europe. Are investors wrong, or is the picture more complex than this seeming contradiction suggests?